Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the tutorial/walkthrough and take a spin through the tool. (Note that for 2024, the “Target Explorer” tab has been removed from the tool.)
In Part 1, I included matchup graphics and some high-level notes. For Part 2, we’ll dive deeper into specific matchups and players.
Falcons at Eagles
The Falcons are set to rebound in their upcoming game against one of the league’s most favorable opponents. Wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts have matchup ratings in the low 60s, suggesting potential for strong performances. The Eagles have particularly struggled against wide receivers lined up out wide, a position London has been utilized in for nearly half of his targets in recent games. Further, wide receivers have outperformed expectations when facing the Eagles, with teams like Buffalo and Arizona each having two receivers post over 15.0 PPR points against them. Additionally, the Eagles rank as the eighth-most favorable defense for opposing tight ends, opening a window for Pitts to have a solid week.
The Eagles may face a tougher challenge this week. While Atlanta has been more vulnerable to slot receivers, both DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown primarily operate outside, where the Falcons rank among the league’s stingiest defenses. Except for a slip-up against the Saints in Week 18 of 2023, Atlanta has consistently shut down opposing wide receivers. Against TEs, the Falcons have held the position to 87% of expected scoring. As a result, Dallas Goedert is likely to be limited to his usual points per game (PPG) average of around 9.0.
Bears at Texans
Caleb Williams delivered an inconsistent performance in his first NFL game, and his wide receivers face a moderately challenging matchup against the Texans in Week 2. However, recent performances by opposing wideouts, including Amari Cooper (51.5 PPR), Ja’Marr Chase (23.4), Calvin Ridley (21.9), and Garrett Wilson (20.1), suggest Chicago’s talented trio could be positioned for decent fantasy outings. While Houston’s defense hasn’t shown significant weakness against either slot or out-wide alignments, WRs have exceeded expectations, scoring 117% of their average PPG in recent matchups. No specific Chicago receiver stands out, as all draw average matchup ratings. TE Cole Kmet struggled in Week 1. With a low matchup score of 36, he isn’t a reliable option this weekend.
The Texans also boast a capable trio of wide receivers, with Tank Dell positioned for the most favorable matchup in this contest. Dell holds a matchup rating of 58, outperforming teammates Stefon Diggs (47) and Nico Collins (44). Dell operates out of the slot on 69% of his routes, and Chicago’s defense, while limiting wide receivers overall in PPR against PPG, has shown more vulnerability to slot receivers. Diggs saw a significant portion of his Week 1 targets from the slot, and if that usage continues, he’s likely set for another strong performance.
On the contrary, TE Dalton Schultz faces a notable challenge with a matchup rating of just 34. The Bears have been one of the league’s toughest defenses for TEs, limiting Trey McBride to 9.1 PPR in Week 16 and Sam LaPorta to 6.8 in Week 11. Although Chigoziem Okonkwo managed a decent Week 1 outing against Chicago, thanks to a touchdown, he only recorded two receptions for 15 yards, highlighting the difficulty Schultz may face this week.
Steelers at Broncos
George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth appear to be the only fantasy relevant options in the Steelers’ passing game when they face Denver this week. Pickens holds a matchup rating of 51, but his potential would increase with more snaps from the slot, a position where Denver has struggled defensively. Unfortunately, Pickens runs only 21% of his routes from the slot, limiting his upside in this particular matchup. Calvin Austin III could be an intriguing option due to his frequent usage from the slot, but he’s unlikely to see enough targets to make a significant fantasy impact.
Freiermuth, however, is well-positioned for success, boasting a matchup rating of 58. Denver has been one of the most favorable defenses for TEs, allowing notable performances in recent matchups. In Week 11 of 2023, both Minnesota TEs, Josh Oliver and T.J. Hockenson, finished in the top 10 for tight end scoring against the Broncos. Freiermuth should be a solid option this week, given Denver’s defensive track record against the position.
For the Broncos’ relevant options, this matchup is average. Courtland Sutton led the team in Week 1 with 12 targets, making him the most trustworthy option in the passing game. While both Devaughn Vele and Josh Reynolds received eight targets, it’s difficult to have confidence in either. Wide receivers averaging between 5.0 and 10.0 PPR since Week 1 of 2023 have managed 1.6 points per target (PPT) against the Steelers, which is 0.1 lower than the league average.
With similar volume, Sutton could still deliver a solid performance, as he has averaged 1.9 PPT over this span. However, in his one game with Nix, Sutton struggled, posting only 0.7 PPT. Despite this, Sutton’s target share gives him a chance for a bounceback effort in Week 2. That said, RotoViz readers with strong WR corps likely have stronger options.
Bengals at Chiefs
The Bengals’ passing attack got off to another slow start this season, delivering a lackluster performance against the Patriots. Tee Higgins missed that game and is trending toward being unavailable against Kansas City, in a challenging matchup for the Bengals’ offense. Ja’Marr Chase holds a matchup rating of just 36, making him a less appealing option for DFS purposes, though he’s still a must-start in season-long formats. WRs with 15.0 or more PPG in their last six games have managed 1.8 PPT on average. However, this grouping of players has managed just 1.4 PPT against the Chiefs in recent games.
Andre Iosivas could see an uptick in flex consideration this week, but he faces a tough task against a Chiefs defense that has been one of the most difficult for wide receivers lining up out wide. While TEs have found success against Kansas City in recent weeks, Mike Gesicki doesn’t benefit from a favorable matchup in this contest, making him a less reliable option. The Bengals’ passing game will need to overcome significant hurdles in this matchup.
The Bengals’ defense has been tough on slot receivers but vulnerable to wideouts running routes from the outside, contributing to their ranking as one of the most favorable defenses for wide receivers in PPR against PPG. This presents an opportunity for Kansas City’s wide receivers to outperform their modest matchup ratings, particularly when lined up out wide. However, based on data from Week 13 of last season forward, Kansas City doesn’t have a receiver who sees a disproportionate amount of usage in wide alignments, making it difficult to pinpoint a specific player likely to exploit this weakness. Nevertheless, the matchup suggests that the Chiefs’ wideouts could capitalize on Cincinnati’s defensive tendencies.
Travis Kelce delivered a modest performance, by his standards, against the Ravens, and the Matchup Rater predicts another challenging game against Cincinnati. His matchup rating of 43 reflects this. The Bengals have recorded average efficiency to TEs, allowing 1.8 points per target (PPT) to those averaging more than 10.0 PPR, which aligns with the league average. The GLSP also projects a tough outing for Kelce, assigning him an average PPR of just 6.8 PPR. This might be the lowest projection I can recall for him since I began generating weekly GLSP.
