Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below include data from the beginning of 2024 and the last several weeks of 2023. This means that personnel changes won’t be entirely reflected in these numbers — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic.
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
The absence of A.J. Brown once again looms large for Philadelphia, especially against a Saints defense allowing just -0.25 EPA per pass (No. 6). This could shift the Eagles’ offensive focus to their ground game, where they average 4.64 yards per play (No. 7) and -0.02 EPA per rush (No. 7). However, they face a formidable Saints run defense (-0.31 EPA per rush allowed, No. 1).
New Orleans’ passing efficiency (7.74 yards per play, No. 2; 0.23 EPA per pass, No. 2) could be key against an Eagles’ defense allowing 6.79 yards per play (No. 24) and that creates pressure on only 30.8% (No. 26) of opponent dropbacks. The Saints’ strong offensive line (29.9% pressure rate allowed, No. 6) makes up for the fact that they do little damage after the catch, as it gives Derek Carr ample time to find receivers deep downfield.
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh’s passing offensive numbers are probably better than you expect, but Justin Fields reshapes this matchup entirely. Against the Chargers underwhelming pass rush (29.6% pressure rate, No. 28; 2.65 seconds to pressure, No. 31), Fields’ mobility should enable him to find open receivers downfield. Los Angeles’ secondary does not play tight coverage.
The Steelers’ running game has been hopeless since the second half of 2023, yet has run more rushing plays than any other team. Not all of this can be blamed on Arthur Smith — he might just have been a really great fit.
The Chargers’ offensive line faces a significant challenge against Pittsburgh’s pass rush, which boasts the second-highest pressure rate in the league (41.2%). This mismatch in the trenches could force Los Angeles to try to establish the run.
After all, J.K. Dobbins has been a revelation through two weeks. The Chargers’ rushing success (4.27 yards per play, No. 11) could be crucial given L.A.’s weakness through the air. The Steelers’ run defense, while generally excellent (-0.25 EPA per rush allowed, No. 3), has shown vulnerability in giving up yards before contact (1.69 YBCon, No. 24). Dobbins leads all RBs in yards before contact through two weeks.
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans
The Titans’ deficient pass rush (29% pressure rate, No. 30) would be a defining factor in this matchup. However, if Malik Willis is once again stepping in at quarterback for Green Bay, the Packers may not be able to fully capitalize. Willis brings at best an element of unpredictability to the Packers’ offense; at worst, an element of unproductiveness. Jordan Love is listed as questionable. If he can play, the Titans’ solid secondary might not be good enough to contend with Green Bay receivers who rank No. 5 in average separation. No WR with at least five targets is averaging as many yards of separation as Jayden Reed.
On the other side, Green Bay’s pass rush (41.1% pressure rate, No. 3) could wreak havoc against Tennessee’s porous offensive line (45.6% pressure rate allowed, No. 31). This mismatch in the trenches might force the Titans into a more conservative, run-heavy game plan to protect their quarterback.
The Packers’ best path to success, if Willis is under center, might be on the ground. Their rushing attack, which averages 5.0 yards per play (No. 4), could exploit a Titans run defense that operates with six or fewer men in the box at a higher rate than any other team.
While Tennessee’s passing struggles are likely to be exacerbated by Green Bay’s strong pass rush, the Packers are susceptible against the run. Only five teams allow more rushing yards per play or more yards after contact. Only four allow more rushing yards over expected.
