Thirty-one years old. Missed most of training camp. Questionable to play in Week 1 with a thigh injury.
Leads Seattle in targets, catches, and yards. Makes an amazing third-down play in the fourth quarter to seal the win in Week 1.
This is just what Tyler Lockett does.
DK Metcalf jokingly called Tyler Lockett the “greatest athlete on planet Earth” for what he did Sunday — leading Seattle in receiving despite missing most of camp (thigh) and the entire preseason. He caught six passes for 79 yards, icing the win with this third-down conversion. pic.twitter.com/VdXvvLci7e
— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) September 12, 2024
My friends Tyler Lockett caught this ball pic.twitter.com/89H77rjJMD
— Tyler 🦅 (@TylerjAlsin) September 13, 2024
“D.K. Metcalf is the Seahawks’ WR1″
“The Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakout is coming!”
Tyler Lockett had more targets, catches, & yards than DK and JSN COMBINED.
Diabolical.
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 9, 2024
Will it ever end?
The year is 2028:
Patrick Mahomes just won his 5th Super Bowl
The Panthers are still in a rebuild
JSN truthers are excited about his production as Tyler Lockett continues to get older. Tyler Lockett ends the year with another 900-yard season. pic.twitter.com/7vIhJIkFQJ
— Akash (@YZR_Fantasy) September 9, 2024
At the end of April, I was on record as saying that Lockett was once again undervalued — along with both Metcalf and Smith-Njigba — as part of the new-look Seattle offense. After one week, I feel pretty good about that statement.
It cannot be understated how the preferences of the new coaching staff could affect how the Seahawks’ receivers are deployed next season. In a similar vein, I am very optimistic that the arrival of the new coaching staff will bring a considerable rise in passing opportunities compared to what we have grown accustomed to in Seattle. While none of the players come without risk, I do feel strongly that all of the pass catchers in this offense have a good chance to return value at their current Underdog ADPs. After the completion of 80 drafts on Underdog, the only Seahawks receiver I am considerably above the market in my exposures is Smith-Njigba. With that in mind, I want to be at least slightly overweight on all of the pieces of the Seattle receiving game moving forward. . . .
I also stated that I was significantly underweight on Lockett and wanted to rectify that over the course of draft season. I didn’t follow through with my intentions, and now I’m kicking myself for not heeding my own advice.
Lockett has probably been the most consistently efficient wide receiver in the NFL since he came into the league in 2015. In my April article, I pointed out that 2023 marked the first time since 2017 that Lockett did not post positive FPOE for the season.
The theory for a Smith-Njigba breakout was that Lockett’s skills would start to decline further, given his age. It would make sense that Smith-Njigba would take a step forward in his second season with an expanded and more dynamic role. Even with reduced opportunity, Lockett was always going to continue to be involved. I even stated that he still had a decent shot of reaching 200 PPR points in 2024.
After Lockett’s Week 1 performance, how should we be adjusting our priors concerning the Seahawks passing game in 2024? That is, assuming we need to adjust them at all.
It is true that Lockett outproduced Metcalf and Smith-Njigba combined in Week 1. And he was able to do it on considerably less snaps.
Despite that, there are a few negatives to take away as well. Lockett did post a negative mark in expected points added (EPA), continuing his trend of declining efficiency from last season. Both Metcalf and Smith-Njigba were the only Seahawks receivers to post positive EPA, and the coaching staff clearly preferred the duo to be on the field over Lockett.
Using RotoViz’s Passing Matchup Rater, we can see that Lockett was also matched up against Riley Moss — arguably Denver’s weakest cornerback in nickel alignments — when the Seahawks were in three-receiver sets. This was an advantage the Seahawks saw and took advantage of while Metcalf and Smith-Njigba drew the attention of the Broncos’ more talented CBs.
After taking all the factors at play into account, we should not go overboard in thinking that Lockett is going to be the alpha WR in Seattle for 2024.
One disheartening statistic from Week 1 that is worth special attention is the continued lack of usage for Smith-Njigba; both downfield and overall. This is evidenced by his putrid target share, aDOT, and air yards totals. The two main talking points for a second-year Smith-Njigba breakout were increased opportunities and a more dynamic role than he had in his rookie season. Through one week of the 2024 season, neither point came to fruition.
Lockett is good at football. We should know that by now.
Lockett is also perennially undervalued by fantasy managers. We should also know that by now.
Lockett was bound to have big games this season, and it just so happens that one of them came in Week 1. He was always going to be a part of the offense, and his Week 1 performance and continued recovery from his thigh injury may lead to increased usage moving forward. Lockett will be worth a start in the FLEX for teams that find themselves shallow at WR, and his production will probably fluctuate on a weekly basis. While Lockett’s involvement will affect Smith-Njigba’s ceiling, it is less concerning than how the Seahawks’ coaching staff chose to use — or not use — the second-year WR in the team’s first game of 2024. Seattle’s WR usage will be something to continue to pay attention to as the season progresses, as we hopefully see more even usage among all the Seahawks receivers for the rest of 2024.
