Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below include data from the beginning of 2024 and the last several weeks of 2023. This means that personnel changes won’t be entirely reflected in these numbers — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
After both Breece Hall and Braelon Allen put up impressive fantasy performances, the Jets may try to get one or both involved early again. The Patriots present a difficult challenge for opposing rushing attacks. Only one team allows fewer yards per rushing play, and no team allows a lower rate of explosive plays. Although New England doesn’t often stack the box, they are able to limit both yards before and yards after contact.
Yet Hall and Allen may be able to find some room as receivers. Both scored receiving TDs in Week 2, and New England is beatable in the passing game. The Patriots don’t create pressure or play tight coverage. Meanwhile, whether it’s because of offensive line play or because of a reluctance to take a hit after his Achilles’ injury, Aaron Rodgers is getting the ball out faster than he has in any other season of his career.
This means two things: first, the Patriots’ pass rush won’t have much time to get to him. But by the same token, it also means that the Jets’ receivers won’t have as much time to get open on their routes. As such, it becomes much more likely that Rodgers’ throws are directed to targets closer to the line of scrimmage: Hall and Allen.
The lower-than-normal time to throw explains why no player on the Jets who’s seen more than a single target has an aDOT higher than Allen Lazard’s 10.7. (Mike Williams has seen just one target on his 20 routes so far, and it was 16 yards down the field.) Rodgers’ average depth of the throw on the season is only 6 yards downfield. For comparison, in Green Bay it never dipped below 7.1 in any season. Garret Wilson operates slightly closer to the line of scrimmage than either Lazard or Williams, but his aDOT is down more than a full yard from 2023, and he’s averaging only 8.5 targets per game through two weeks, also down from his 2023 mark of 9.9.
| Player | GM | RoutesRun | Targets | Routes/GM | Targets/GM | Routes/Target | aDOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 2 | 60 | 17 | 30 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 9.1 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 50 | 13 | 25 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 10.7 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 40 | 14 | 20 | 7 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 17 | 5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 3.4 | -0.6 |
While we shouldn’t bet against Wilson and Rodgers being able to figure out their connection, this could end up being an offense that funnels more targets to the RBs than we expect.
On the other side, New England will have difficulty passing the ball against the Jets, and not only because New York is the No. 1 defense in EPA allowed per pass. It’s also because the Patriots have one of the worst passing offenses.
The Jets’ pass rush ranks No. 4 in pressure rate, and the Patriots’ offensive line is No. 30 in pressure rate allowed. Additionally, no team’s receivers create less separation than New England’s. Only two teams play tighter coverage than New York’s secondary. This is not a recipe for a big passing game from the Patriots.
The problem for Patriots fans and fantasy managers who have pieces of this offense is that it may also be difficult for them to move the ball on the ground. However, if there’s a way for New England to pick up yards and first downs, it’s through the running game. Despite poor rankings in many advanced rushing metrics, the Patriots are No. 5 in yards after contact, and no team allows more rushing yards after contact than the Jets, who are also susceptible to explosive running plays.
Rhamondre Stevenson won’t have an easy matchup by any stretch, but he could break off some long runs. The Jets stack the box more than most teams, which probably allows them to limit yards before contact. But once RBs get past that initial contact, they’ve been able to pick up yards. Considering the likely emphasis on RB play in this game, it’s no surprise to see an over/under of just 38.5.
