After two years of toiling away with Zach Wilson as his primary quarterback, 2024 was the year that Garrett Wilson was going to be fully unleashed. With Aaron Rodgers now healthy, the third-year WR and the veteran signal caller were supposed to be the second coming of the Rodgers-Davante Adams duo from the QB’s days in Green Bay.
Things seemed to be going as planned, as we got plenty of highlights of Rodgers hitting Wilson with dimes throughout the preseason.
WOW! 🤯🤯🤯
Former #Packers QB Aaron Rodgers threads the needle to find Garrett Wilson at the #Jets training camp. 👀
Don’t see dimes like this in Green Bay anymore. 😬pic.twitter.com/jSLlF5BtXo
— NFC North News (@NFCNorthNewss) July 25, 2024
Garrett Wilson was amazing at joint practice with the Panthers today 🔥🔥
Top QB-WR duo loading…⏳#Jets | 🎥 @nyjets pic.twitter.com/C7ncG4oG7G
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) August 15, 2024
One clip that shed a negative light on the relationship saw Wilson visibly upset with Rodgers, but the QB later went on to say that it was nothing to worry about, and that the situation was being overblown by the media.
UH OH 😳
A VERY HEATED discussion between QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Garrett Wilson at #Jets training camp today 😤🔥#NFL #Jets
pic.twitter.com/PWiqvCSuNf— Sports Forum News (@SportsForumNews) July 30, 2024
After Wilson was touted as an early-round ADP value and the best way to overcome a bad draft slot leading up to the season, it looked like we were finally going to see the best Wilson had to offer in his third year.
In Week 1, Wilson got plenty of volume — earning the fifth-highest expected points of any WR. Unfortunately, he significantly underperformed, finishing as the WR29 Week 1 with 12.0 PPR. With all of the attention Wilson saw from the 49ers defense, Allen Lazard was able to put together the best PPR performance of his career — finishing as the overall WR2 for the week.
Week 2 saw Wilson come back to lead the Jets WRs in PPR points, but 10.2 points and a WR33 finish was not what fantasy managers had in mind when drafting him at the end of the first round.
On Thursday night, Wilson had his highest-scoring week of 2024 with 14.3 PPR points. But if not for an acrobatic touchdown grab in the third quarter, his day would have been much worse.
A DIME FROM RODGERS TO WILSON 🙌🏽
Garrett gets his 1st of many TD’s from Aaron! 🔥#NFL #NEvsNYJ #JetUp
pic.twitter.com/Z8yx90bw48— Sports Forum News (@SportsForumNews) September 20, 2024
Through three games, Wilson is averaging 12.2 PPR points per game and still trails Lazard for the team lead in total PPR points. Heading into the season, were we being too optimistic about Wilson’s ceiling, or is there more to his struggles than what we are able to decipher from the box score?
Despite being second on the Jets in PPR scoring, Wilson has a slight lead over Lazard in receiving yards, as well as a sizable lead in target share and air yards share. While currently having played one more game than the WRs in front of him, Wilson’s 28.3% target share ranks 11th in the NFL among WRs.
Unfortunately, being a star WR comes with a lot of attention from opposing defenses, and Wilson has gotten his fair share up to this point.
Garrett Wilson gets Patrick Surtain next week – then hopefully, he should be able to breathe and catch at the same time.
Wheels up 🛫 https://t.co/BvJrkNtvlo
— ballognese (@ballognese) September 20, 2024
Using the Strength of Schedule Streaming App, things do not seem like they will be getting much easier for Wilson in the immediate future.
Digging a little deeper with the Passing Game Matchup Rater, we can take a look at who Wilson will likely be going toe-to-toe against over the next few weeks.
GARRETT WILSON (Week 13 2023-Week 2 2024)
DENVER BRONCOS (Week 13 2023- Week 2 2024)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Week 1-2 2024 )
BUFFALO BILLS (Week 13 2023-Week 2 2024)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Week 13 2023-Week 2 2024)
Things may not get much easier for Wilson after the Steelers game, as it is highly probable that he will be shadowed again by Christian Gonzalez in Week 8, and then by Derek Stingley Jr. in Week 9. Overall, the Jets WRs have the 12th-most difficult schedule from Week 4 on.
As defenses have been giving Wilson extra attention up to this point, perhaps the best we can hope for is that a team will trust their cornerbacks alone on an island against Wilson while trying to stop the Jets’ ascending rushing attack of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. Since Wilson came into the league, he ranks seventh among WRs in ESPN’s Open Score, and teams may be willing to let their shutdown CBs attempt to take on Wilson one-on-one if they are getting gashed on the ground. But with the lack of other high-end weapons in the Jets’ passing game, it is more likely that defenses will continue to dare the Jets to beat them with their other WRs than leave Wilson in single coverage.
When dealing with any player in fantasy football, giving more weight to talent over circumstance is generally a solid strategy. While his matchups in the coming weeks overall are not very favorable, circumstances can change in the blink of an eye. Also, any fantasy team that is rostering Wilson is unlikely to be overflowing with so much talent that benching him becomes an option anyway.
From Week 4 through the end of October, Wilson will likely have a few good games mixed in with some stinkers. While things look pessimistic for Wilson in the short term, his circumstances do look more optimistic at the end of the regular season and throughout the fantasy playoffs. For teams that find themselves falling in their league’s standings, Wilson should by no means be untouchable. Wilson’s juicy playoff schedule will be of little use to teams that are unable to reach the fantasy postseason. But for teams that are built to weather his potential early-season struggles, Wilson becomes a hold or trade target that could pay off huge at the end of the season.
