In recent weeks, I’ve gone through some of the most meaningful underlying WR stats, searching for players who might be overlooked relative to cost. If you have time, go back and see what I uncovered analyzing players with strong outputs in Air Yards and Yards per Route Run (YPRR). This week, I’ll put Target Market Share (reTRGMS) under the microscope.
Target Market Share is a tremendous advanced metric with strongly predictive correlative properties; in my correlation studies from the spring, it ranked just below primary stats and opportunity stats among the most predictive stats from a top-down view; in my more recent correlation study focused on the positional apex at WR, it showed up at No. 2 behind only YPRR (it bears mention, while still a small sample, the data should be seen as slightly more reliable with reTRGMS than YPRR, because the inputs go back much further in our statistical database).
While the information in this apex-based study can’t be seen as overly trustworthy (there is a more detailed description in the Yards per Route Run article, which I won’t repeat here.), reTRGMS is already a proven sticky stat; its stellar performance in this study signals it could be even better than realized. Based on that, we should feel reassured to pursue upside this way, knowing there is no consequential downside.
And yet again, we should feel very encouraged by the caliber of players that litter the top 30 in reTRGMS.
Let’s take a look at some gems from 2023 who excelled in reTRGMS and where they are going in drafts.
EARLY ROUNDERS
A.J. BROWN (10.4 ADP, WR6)
A.J. Brown (32% reTRGMS) finished 2023 tied for second among all WRs in reTRGMS, though his performance in this area sagged in the middle-to-back part of the season. There is no doubt Brown is one step down from the elite crop of WRs at the top of drafts, and the target distribution in Philly promises to once again be narrow. Draft Brown confidently in this part of the draft.
GARRETT WILSON (11.4 ADP, WR7)
Garrett Wilson (30% reTRGMS) has seen his efficiency tank in his first two seasons in the league, particularly in playing a large volume of his games with Zach Wilson; even without Zach Wilson, the QB situation in the Meadowlands hasn’t been great, but we can already see a fair amount of improvement with the Flaccos, Strevellers, Siemiens, and Boyles of the world as the splits reveal:
By imagining Garrett Wilson has even competent QB play, which Aaron Rodgers should deliver (even with his reduced efficiency in 2022 followed by a lost year in 2023, Rodgers still should still easily be the best QB Wilson has played with since college), we can project his efficiency to rise. As for everything else? Wilson is either on track or elite. Entering a situation this year with nothing more than a dynamic RB, a gimmicky rookie slot guy, an older receiver coming off an ACL injury, and a mid-level TE as target competition, Wilson is almost certainly going to get the old Davante Adams treatment from Rodgers, so his already great reTRGMS could actually rise.
