Is Elite QB the Key to 2024 Drafts? How to Exploit Underdog’s ADP Shift with an Underutilized Yet Powerful Stacking Strategy

Bjorn Yang-Vaernet
August 26, 2024

Bjorn Yang-Vaernet explores the nuances of the Elite-QB roster construction strategy for Underdog best ball tournaments in 2024

After a whole summer of drafting best ball teams on Underdog, I’ve come to love Rounds 4 and 5 because I can draft elite QBs. This position group is underpriced because the market overreacted to how the one season sample of 2023 played out. The knee-jerk reaction to what most recently happened phenomenon occurs all the time in fantasy football. For example:

A WR has two receptions on just three targets for 120 yards and 2 TDs and he is the highest rostered player in DFS and the most added player off the waiver wire in the following week
An RB has two uncorrelated season-ending injuries in consecutive seasons and managers avoid him in drafts for being injury prone

I believe being overweight the QBs going in this range could be a massive edge by season end. Why? Find out below.

What does the historical data show?

The Elite QB roster construction strategy requires a bit of nuance to parse through because there is a lack of success historically. (Elite QB is defined as QB1 by Round 5.) Below is a chart of win rates from FFPC Classic leagues for the last several years. There has only been one season of an above-average win rate from Elite QB rosters (2022).

Year	FFPC Classic Win Rate
2017	5.8%
2018	6.2%
2019	3.9%
2020	7.4%
2021	8.2%
2022	9.6%
2023	7.9%
Baseline	8.3%

However, it is important to caveat that these leagues are full point per reception (PPR) leagues with an extra 0.5 points per reception for TEs. The extra fantasy points for all the other position groups diminish the importance of the QB position. A quick example illustrates my point.

The scoring premium between the top-scoring QB and RB in fantasy points per game in a full PPR league and a 0.5 PPR league was 5.5% and 15.3%, respectively, in 2023. In other words, a top QB can separate a lot more from a top RB in a 0.5 PPR scoring format, such as Underdog.

In Underdog, the advance rate statistics for Elite QB rosters are mixed, but not nearly as underwhelming in the other formats.

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Bjorn Yang-Vaernet

Writer at RotoViz. Best ball enthusiast. Happy to interact more on Twitter @GoldenGate_FF

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