Shawn Siegele provides his 10 favorite upside plays to crush your home league drafts this weekend.
A few days ago I released my 25 Priority Targets for Home Leagues with ESPN ADP. Our priority recommendations are built on three concepts.
- Crafting rosters with an extreme emphasis on talent
- Emphasizing players who provide exposure to scenarios with explosive upside
- Leveraging cost such that drafters have plenty of room to miss and still build a dominant team
As a result, our priority selections should be strong picks across most price environments. With that as a backdrop, it’s always helpful to focus on your specific format, so today’s 10 Upside Values will feature opportunities to exploit CBS prices.
The 2024 home league game plan is the culmination of six months of research, much of it culled from the 30-plus tools that come with your RotoViz subscription. Check out our additional home-league coverage as you prepare for the most important draft in your portfolio.
- 12 Best Values in ESPN Drafts by Blair Andrews
- 2024’s Home League Game Plan: WRs in Yahoo! Leagues by Kevin Szafraniec
- The Must-Draft Wide Receivers in Yahoo! Drafts by Mat Irby
- How to Dominate ESPN Auction Drafts by Dave Caban
There’s Nothing Like Winning the Home League – Top 10 Upside Values
Looking to add an FFPC $350 league to your portfolio? These 5 Players Pave the Path to $1 Million.
- A League-Winning Late-Round WR Who Is Cheaper Than Jalen Tolbert But Has More Upside
- An Unfashionable TE About to Jump to Elite Status Who Shouldn’t Be Going After Tyler Conklin
- A Better Vertical Option Than George Pickens at a Fraction of the Cost
- A Young Receiving Star Who Gives You Brandon Aiyuk’s Upside but at a Discount and Without the Drama
- and stay tuned for the No. 1 best pick in the FPC!
No. 1 Jahmyr Gibbs – 17.9 ADP
Last year Gibbs was our nominee as the best pick in every draft, and he went out and scored 16.4 PPG despite splitting time with David Montgomery.
Gibbs was the perfect dual-threat back, averaging 7.5 rushing Expected Points (ruEP) and 7.5 receiving EP. In other words, his workload translated into 15 fantasy points a game, with a great usage mix that provides a strong floor and elite upside. Gibbs then outperformed his volume by 1.4 PPG due to a big-play ability that was reflected in elite rushing peripherals.
| Player | Att | Y/A | YAC/Att | Evasion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 148 | 5.3 | 3 | 30.4% |
| Kenneth Walker III | 219 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 24.7% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 182 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 24.2% |
| James Conner | 208 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 22.1% |
| Bijan Robinson | 214 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 19.2% |
Gibbs broke 27 tackles as a rookie, an impressive feat for a smaller back, and ranked No. 3 in evasion rate.
By contrast, Gibbs struggled a bit in the receiving game, a surprise for arguably the best receiving prospect since Christian McCaffrey. Gibbs ranked No. 11 in routes (293), but finished with 275 fewer yards than Breece Hall (290 routes).
That’s a bit of an unfair comparison as Hall broke multiple long runs and posted a 40% receiving evasion rate, but Gibbs ranked No. 25 in yards per route (min. 30 targets), far below the level we might expect from a back who caught 102 passes for almost 1,200 yards during his three collegiate seasons.
The Lions have big plans for him in 2024, as running backs coach Scottie Montgomery explains:
Now what we need him to do from a passing game standpoint is go to the next level. I do think there’s a certain difference between route running from the backfield and being a really, really efficient and efficient check down versus it is to be a great route runner, a guy that can run all types of choice. We know we’ve seen him do those things. But now can you go into the slot and a little bit more down the field? Some intermediate stuff? Can we continue to grow him there? And that’s what we’re trying to do.
Gibbs has spent time after practice working on releases with Amon-Ra St. Brown, and recently the receiver challenged his teammate to reach 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards, a threshold only McCaffrey has hit this century.
Could Gibbs be about to join this exclusive group?
Throw your mind back a few years, and McCaffrey was wildly underdrafted after splitting time with Jonathan Stewart during his rookie season. The Panthers added C.J. Anderson, who was coming off a 1,200-yard season of his own, but McCaffrey began his challenge to fantasy immortality that season.
McCaffrey’s 2018 was one of only two recent RB seasons to score 330 or more points for a back drafted outside the first round. Due to his own injuries and the superior challenge from Montgomery, Gibbs is a bigger risk than McCaffrey at the same point, but in 2024 the burgeoning star will try to make it three.
