Blair Andrews’ Wide Receiver Breakout Series culminates in a close look at the players most likely to provide an outsized return in 2024.
I’ve spent the last couple of weeks diving deep into the dynamics of WR breakouts and secondary breakouts. Be sure to check out those articles if you missed any:
- These Second-Year WRs Are Going to Crush Expectations and Win Fantasy Titles
- It’s Easy to Get the Age Part Wrong: How to Exploit Misconceptions About Age and Fantasy Scoring
- The Best Thing You Can Ever Do Is Chase Star Players: Why Rookie Efficiency Foreshadows Greatness
- It’s Not Over When a Player Breaks Out: Why the Jump to Stardom Is the Last Big Exploitable Loophole
My last article tied all these together with a look at WR age curves. While it’s easy to misunderstand what these curves are telling us, they still provide significant insight into the types of players we should be targeting in drafts.
Today we’ll put all that research into action to find the players most likely to ascend to the tops of the WR rankings in 2024. Many of the players on this list are being drafted later than they should be, and all of them have an excellent chance to outperform their historical fantasy outputs. Some are players we’ve been talking about all offseason, while some are players you might not even have on your radar yet.
The Top Breakout Candidates
Draft age remains one of the most important metrics for wide receiver evaluation, even into Year 5. The following names all played their final college game at age 20, and finished their rookie seasons before turning 22.
The Year 2 Breakout Candidates
The top Year 2 breakout candidates have been featured in almost every article in my WR Breakout series, and with good reason. All things equal, Year 2 is the most common year for a WR breakout, and youth gives players a significant advantage. If there’s any red flag for these players, it’s that players who are drafted at age 20 are actually slightly more likely to break out in their rookie seasons. Nevertheless, both of these receivers should be more expensive.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
After a disappointing rookie year, it’s easy to forget just how good Smith-Njigba was in college. Luckily Shawn Siegele’s recent deep dive provides a stark reminder:
At a younger age, Smith-Njigba dominated [Garrett] Wilson and [Chris] Olave in scrimmage yards, yards per route, and the ability to make people miss (broken and forced missed tackles).
You could argue that having two future NFL first-round receivers on the boundary made it easier for JSN to thrive in the slot. While it almost certainly did, that doesn’t explain his 15-347-3 eruption when the two stars sat out the bowl game.
Smith-Njigba didn’t have a single WR1 week as a rookie. If we include Week 18, he was slightly below expectation in terms of FPOE.
However, it’s important to remember that he was dealing with a wrist injury for the early part of the season. Players with his age and production profile who are drafted in the first round don’t simply disappear. Expect JSN to build on the efficiency he found later in his rookie year.
Marvin Mims
Mims on the other hand was one of the most efficient rookies, and started off 2023 as hot as any first-year player, albeit on limited opportunities. Unfortunately, his volume didn’t expand and his efficiency regressed as the season went on.
Now that Jerry Jeudy is in Cleveland, there could be more opportunity for Mims to see the field. He’ll be competing for touches with one of our favorite rookies, Troy Franklin. But there might be enough upside in this offense for both receivers to carve out meaningful fantasy roles.
