The trendiest way to play the TE position in 2024 is through one of the elite or near-elite options. This makes sense, as the circumstances that made 2023 such a good year for late-round TE no longer obtain. But the natural question for RotoViz readers approaching the TE position is: why stop at one?
In 2022, Madison Parkhill introduced readers to the idea of bully TE builds, which he defined as taking two TEs before Round 7. In 2024’s ADP landscape, this puts the dividing line for elite TEs between George Kittle (elite) and Evan Engram (not quite there). At the very least, this tier break “feels right.” So we’ll stick with Madison’s definition for what I’m calling double-elite TE, to distinguish it from strategies that might take two early but non-elite options. (Players like Engram, David Njoku, Jake Ferguson, and sadly even Brock Bowers do not make the cut for our purposes.) The goal for double-elite TE builds — at least in 2024 — is to come away with two of the top seven TEs by ADP.
The Theoretical Basis for Double-Elite TE
Why would we want to take two of these players? In each of the last three iterations of Best Ball Manias, an elite TE (even if he wasn’t drafted as an elite TE) has provided outsized returns in the playoffs. One of the TEs above has been among the leaders in either semifinals or finals advance rate in each of the last three seasons. In BBM2, Mark Andrews trailed only Cooper Kupp in semifinals advance rate. No player in the league had a higher finals advance rate.
In 2022’s BBM3, Kittle ranked fourth in finals advance rate. Only Justin Jefferson and a couple of players often not drafted were better.
Last season, in BBM4, Sam LaPorta trailed only Christian McCaffrey in semifinals advance rate. He ranked sixth in finals advance rate (though three of the players ahead of him had ADPs in the 200s).
Taking two of these guys gives us more chances to hit on the elite TE who can get us through these crucial playoff weeks. It also gives us an extra player who is likely to land in our flex spot fairly often. If it’s true that fantasy is a race to fill the flex, then taking two elite TEs is one of the easiest ways to win that race.
An Aside on Where to Find Elite TEs
To be sure, LaPorta wasn’t drafted in this range in 2023. He wouldn’t have fit a double-elite TE build last season. This is correct, but the point of the above has less to do with the ADP and more to do with the talent profile. LaPorta was being drafted in the double-digit rounds, but he profiled as a player who could ascend to the elite ranks in short order. In 2023, that profile was available much later than usual. Between LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride, and others who didn’t quite pan out, several late options provided the profile we want in an elite TE. These players not only give us multi-TD upside in any given week, but can also score points without TDs. They offer a significant goal-line role in addition to an expectation of volume and yardage efficiency.
In this sense, we might want to include players like Engram, Njoku, and particularly Bowers. The rookie looks the most likely of any of these options to be a fourth-round pick next year. It’s possible one of these later TEs is the player you need in the playoffs, and — especially in Bowers’ case — that they could quickly become such a central part of their offense that they are routinely filling our flex slot. Yet for the sake of simplicity, we’ll continue to define double-elite TE strictly with a Round 6 cutoff. For a variety of reasons I think Bowers should be going closer to that range anyway — he’s still arguably the most undervalued player in all of fantasy.
Why 2024 Is the Perfect Year for Double-Elite TE
This season gives us a few advantages that we didn’t have in past seasons. For example, when Madison was writing about the strategy two years ago, Travis Kelce was a first-round pick. Andrews was a second-round pick and Kyle Pitts was going in the middle of the third. Last season Kelce was a first-rounder and Andrews was usually gone by the 3.06. However, in 2024, the first TE drafted (LaPorta) occasionally slips to the fourth. The cost of drafting elite TEs is lower than it’s been in any recent season.
Prior Seasons Still Gave Us Huge Performances
Yet it’s not as though elite TEs were overvalued in prior seasons. When Kelce was the 1.06 in 2021, he finished No. 9 in semifinal advance rate (No. 2 among TEs) despite a poor playoff advance rate. The next season he slipped to the 1.12 and was the only first-rounder and one of only two players in the first two rounds to finish with a playoff advance rate above 30%. The prices you had to pay to draft Kelce were fair, if not too cheap. In 2023 he was back up to the 1.06 and finished with just an 11% playoff advance rate. However, his 175 Underdog points would have been enough for a much more robust advance rate at his current ADP in the middle of the fourth.
2023 Wasn’t as Bad as You Think
2023 was not the best season for elite TEs, but it wasn’t a complete wasteland either. Kittle had an ADP of 60.9 and finished with a 26.3% playoff advance rate. Yet in 2024, he’s going even later. T.J. Hockenson had an ADP of 50.9 — earlier than three of the current group — and finished with a playoff advance rate of 21.5%. Even in a down season, and when the ADPs weren’t as favorable as they are now for an elite TE build, elite TEs still gave us winning performances. Getting one of these elite TEs can provide a sizable boost, and they are cheaper now than they’ve ever been, making it possible and even attractive to get two of them.
Still, taking two TEs in the high-leverage rounds represents a significant opportunity cost. We’d be remiss not to note that double-elite TE can easily go very wrong. If you require no other stipulations in the Underdog Roster Construction Explorer, it’s somewhat pessimistic about the outlook:
TE2 Before Round 7
Of course, 2023 was a down season for the earliest elite TEs. The top two drafted TEs — Kelce and Andrews — both had playoff advance rates below 15%. Yet simply taking two TEs before Round 7 has not by itself been a winning strategy in any season.
TE2 Before Round 7 by Season
Season | Playoffs | Semifinals | Finals |
---|---|---|---|
2021 | 15.2% | 2.80% | 0.06% |
2022 | 13.4% | 1.64% | 0.11% |
2023 | 15.2% | 0.46% | 0.00% |