Bjorn Yang-Vaernet analyzes the current running back and wide receiver environment and explores why an early RB draft strategy can take advantage of these trends
When I first started playing DFS about eight years ago, I’d listen to podcast hosts reminisce about how the tournaments were much easier back in the day when the entrants hadn’t figured out the optimal strategies. I’d often tell myself that if I could have just played during those years, I too would have been raking in the cash each week. Just kidding, I probably wouldn’t have. However, those hosts were correct in identifying that games where there is little data to go off of often have the biggest edges.
Best ball is in a similar spot right now. Without the benefit of multiple seasons of a large flagship tournament like Best Ball Mania (BBM), it is hard to figure out what roster strategies are actually strong and which merely reflect player performance. That being said, the one thing most drafters agree with is the power of wide receivers.
The WR inflation of 2024 is absolutely crazy, but not necessarily wrong. The chart below shows the number of WRs drafted in the first two rounds of BBM, starting with BBM II.
Having enough WR firepower is becoming the equivalent of stacking in DFS or dressing professionally for a job interview. It is essential to win these large-scale tournaments. However, lost in the WR frenzy is the fact that RBs are still extremely valuable. I’ll go one step further: The RB position is the most important position if WR-heavy rosters are becoming the norm.
A Reminder of Why RBs Matter
While it would be fun to be the contrarian and advocate for all RBs, I specifically think the skeleton key for best ball drafts in 2024 could be the early RBs going in the first round:
- Christian McCaffrey
- Bijan Robinson
- Breece Hall
Dual-threat RBs are the most valuable asset in fantasy football because opportunities and touchdowns are the key variables for fantasy output. The RBs like the three above should touch the ball more than 20 times a game with many of the looks either in the passing game or near the goal line.
The RotoViz expected fantasy points per game (EP/g) metric highlights how valuable a workload like this is worth. The top three RBs during each of the past five years averaged 19.9 EP/g. The top-end ceiling was also greater than most WRs, as RBs accounted for five of the seven players that exceeded 20 EP/g during this period.
Importantly, the RotoViz metric takes into account a full point per reception. If we were to adjust the EP/g for Underdog’s 0.5 PPR scoring system, RBs would benefit the most since a smaller share of their workload is tied to catching the ball.
| Year | RB Finish | Player | Expected Points per Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 19.4 |
| 2023 | 2 | Kyren Williams | 18.7 |
| 2023 | 3 | Alvin Kamara | 18.5 |
| 2023 | 4 | Josh Jacobs | 16.5 |
| 2023 | 5 | Joe Mixon | 16.4 |
| 2022 | 1 | Austin Ekeler | 19.5 |
| 2022 | 2 | Christian McCaffrey | 19.2 |
| 2022 | 3 | Joe Mixon | 18.2 |
| 2022 | 4 | Saquon Barkley | 17.4 |
| 2022 | 5 | Josh Jacobs | 17.1 |
| 2021 | 1 | Derrick Henry | 20.2 |
| 2021 | 2 | Najee Harris | 19.1 |
| 2021 | 3 | Alvin Kamara | 18.6 |
| 2021 | 4 | Jonathan Taylor | 17.9 |
| 2021 | 5 | Dalvin Cook | 17.6 |
| 2020 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 23.9 |
| 2020 | 2 | Dalvin Cook | 20.8 |
| 2020 | 3 | Alvin Kamara | 18.8 |
| 2020 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott | 18.5 |
| 2020 | 5 | Joe Mixon | 17.9 |
| 2019 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 25 |
| 2019 | 2 | Leonard Fournette | 20.5 |
| 2019 | 3 | Ezekiel Elliott | 17.8 |
| 2019 | 4 | Dalvin Cook | 17.6 |
| 2019 | 5 | Saquon Barkley | 17.4 |
RBs are a Scarce Resource
The best ball market is not pricing in the fact that do-it-all RBs are rare in the modern day NFL. A number of metrics point to this trend, including:
