Shawn Siegele helps you find the next Alvin Kamara or Tony Pollard, a player currently going for peanuts in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Alvin Kamara and Tony Pollard possess a lot of similarities even though their careers have taken different trajectories. Their paths illustrate two of the possible outcomes for players with their prospect profile: Kamara, an extreme ceiling outcome and Pollard, a well-above-average outcome. Many similar players will not do nearly as well, but it’s worth closely tracking prospects with these traits, especially when contextual similarities have also created a very favorable price.
How Kamara and Pollard Became 2 of the Most Valuable Backs in Fantasy Football
Over the seven-year span from 2017 to 2023, Kamara’s rookie season recorded the fourth-best FFPC win rate among all players. (The higher win-rate campaigns were seasons of 385 or more points from Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey.) Pollard finally broke through in 2022, and his 247-point season from an ADP of 81 ranks as the 15th-best RB win rate over that timeframe.
Why were these guys so affordable in their breakout seasons? And what similarities did they share as prospects?
- Kamara and Pollard both failed to record a 1,000-yard rushing season in college . . . but each went off for more than 70 receptions and 650 receiving yards across their final two college campaigns.
- Kamara and Pollard are both electric athletes despite disappointing timed 40s. (Kamara’s tested explosiveness came in at the 98th percentile.)
- Kamara and Pollard were both selected after Round 2 but before Round 5, a sweet spot for RB value.
- Kamara and Pollard were both drafted into backfields with established stars. Kamara joined a 28-year-old Mark Ingram who had scored 246 points (RB8) the previous year. Pollard joined a 24-year-old Ezekiel Elliott who had scored 316 points (RB3) the previous year.
- Kamara and Pollard both declared early as redshirt juniors and played their rookie seasons at 22, providing youth, upside, and a bit of runway for their redraft and dynasty managers.
Kamara was selected earlier (No. 67 overall) and was already generating rave reviews by this point in the fantasy calendar. With an older, less dynamic back in front of him, he exploded onto the scene with 322 points (on the back of 103 fantasy points over expectation). That type of outcome is extremely unlikely for anyone, even elite prospects.
Pollard was selected later (No. 128 overall) and was not a big immediate threat to peak Elliott. It took him a bit longer to get going, but he posted 32 FPOE in his third season, on the way to an RB27 finish. The following year he finally displaced Elliott and scored 249 points while ranking No. 1 in FPOE.
I would take either of those outcomes for one of my highest-rostered players in dynasty, and one of my favorite late-round picks in best ball.
Looking for the Draft Strategy Series?
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- Our Contrarian QB Approach Offers Crazy Win Rates in Superflex by Shawn Siegele
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- 2024’s Best Player Hack Provides the Key to Exploiting RB in 2024 by Shawn Siegele
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- Thousands of Seasons/Millions of Teams: What the Simulations Tell Us About WR by Jake Boes
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- The Intersection of Rankings and ADP Helps You Beat QB and TE by Conor O’Driscoll
