Are Single Tight End Builds the Strongest Contrarian Strategy in Best Ball? Simulating Millions of Best Ball Teams to Find Out
Image Credit: Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: David Njoku.

As we race toward peak fantasy football draft season, we’re seeing the annual flurry of articles exploring running back and wide receiver strategies, correlations, tendencies, and more. These two positions dominate fantasy football discourse for good reason. They will be the largest sources of your teams’ points. All of that research supports a relatively strong understanding of how to draft those positions, particularly in best ball formats. As I shared in my first article utilizing my 12-million-team simulated dataset, spending disproportionate draft capital at WR has been a consistently strong strategy. While continued research is crucial to refine our understanding of the two most-discussed positions, it’s not the lowest hanging fruit on the best ball optimization tree.

In my opinion, tight end is currently the least understood position in best ball. In this article I will utilize my massive, 12-million-team simulated dataset to explore underused TE constructions. We’ll marry the data with the theory to understand how these strategies can further bolster our edge in best ball tournaments.

If you haven’t read my first article discussing this simulated data, please follow the link above to learn more about how this data was generated.

Tight End is More Complex than Other Positions in Best Ball

Tight end is popularly viewed as being similar to quarterback in that both positions only require a single starting player each week. However, I think that viewpoint is overly simplistic for two reasons:

  1. Tight ends score fewer points than any other position when adjusted for cost. This is particularly true when compared to QBs. If you could choose to take a zero at any position for the entire season, you’d choose TE.
  2. Tight ends can be used in the flex position, where QBs cannot.

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Simulating Best Ball Mania to Uncover the Hidden Impact of Bye Weeks and Injuries

The NFL preseason is underway and training camp blurbs are flooding the internet. The NFL season is near. The firehose of news can be overwhelming, but it’s one of the keys to forming each players’ range of outcomes. Whether it’s a sleeper already running with the starters or a shiny rookie playing with the third team, we’re learning more each day about the floor and…...

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Can Best Ball Simulations Unlock New Quarterback Strategies? Analyzing Millions of Simulated Teams In Search of a Contrarian Build

While impassioned debates carry on about the ideal strategies for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania (BBM) contests, quarterback strategy seems to have reached consensus. More than 95% of teams in BBM history have selected two or three quarterbacks. On the surface, it seems reasonable to take at least two QBs to ensure you have coverage for bye weeks…...

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WR Early and Often Has Dominated Best Ball Mania But Is That a Historical Fluke? Simulating Thousands of Seasons and Millions of Teams to Find the Answer

Over the last three months I’ve been working in collaboration with the RotoViz team to develop a tool to simulate Best Ball Mania (BBM) tournaments. This includes generating an original player pool for each “season,” simulating drafts, pulling fantasy scores from a weighted distribution, and finally adding up each team’s score using Underdog’s BBM roster settings. The simulation methodology includes injuries, bye weeks, quarterback changes,…...

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Simulating Best Ball Mania to Uncover the Hidden Impact of Bye Weeks and Injuries

The NFL preseason is underway and training camp blurbs are flooding the internet. The NFL season is near. The firehose of news can be overwhelming, but it’s one of the keys to forming each players’ range of outcomes. Whether it’s a sleeper already running with the starters or a shiny rookie playing with the third team, we’re learning more each day about the floor and…...

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Can Best Ball Simulations Unlock New Quarterback Strategies? Analyzing Millions of Simulated Teams In Search of a Contrarian Build

While impassioned debates carry on about the ideal strategies for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania (BBM) contests, quarterback strategy seems to have reached consensus. More than 95% of teams in BBM history have selected two or three quarterbacks. On the surface, it seems reasonable to take at least two QBs to ensure you have coverage for bye weeks…...

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WR Early and Often Has Dominated Best Ball Mania But Is That a Historical Fluke? Simulating Thousands of Seasons and Millions of Teams to Find the Answer

Over the last three months I’ve been working in collaboration with the RotoViz team to develop a tool to simulate Best Ball Mania (BBM) tournaments. This includes generating an original player pool for each “season,” simulating drafts, pulling fantasy scores from a weighted distribution, and finally adding up each team’s score using Underdog’s BBM roster settings. The simulation methodology includes injuries, bye weeks, quarterback changes,…...

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