This may surprise you, but the most predictive statistics for fantasy wide receivers remain primary stats: targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. This is intuitive, because, except for targets, these are the stats that go into the mathematical computation for a receiver’s PPR. In other words, it’s like saying blue and yellow correlate better with green than other colors do. But everyone uses these stats to draft players so they provide no edge. This is why we spend tireless hours emphasizing advanced metrics. We want to maintain a sense of gravity leading us back to the primary stats, but we’re forced to find edges through underlying stats that simultaneously correlate to future fantasy scoring while possibly going overlooked.

Correlation studies inevitably differ based on chosen variables so different studies will be somewhat inconsistent; I recently did one for wide receivers based on RotoViz advanced metrics and found that intended air yards per game (IAY/G) and converted air yards per game (CAY/G) were among the more correlated advanced metrics when held up against fantasy points from the following season. Air yards are not some new revelation, but they are less discussed than some of the heavyweights like yards per route run (Y/Route) or target market share (reTRGMS), but, according to my research, they rank back-to-back just in between these more commonly discussed metrics. Air yards fit the bill as an underlying metric that goes under the radar and could help lead us to future fantasy production.

Below are the top 30 WRs from 2023 in CAY/G, which correlates slightly better than IAY/G.

That the list feels like a roll call for players who excelled in primary stats and key advanced metrics in 2023 should give us comfort. Still, edges can be found. Let’s highlight a few players currently drafted outside the top 50 in FFPC Redraft ADP who excel in CAY/G and IAY/G.

MIDDLE ROUNDERS

AMARI COOPER (53.7 FFPC Redraft ADP, WR26)

Amari Cooper, who turned 30 in June, starts a trend we will see plenty of. Fantasy drafters are by nature ageist, and RotoViz is admittedly at the forefront of affecting the ADP of mature players. While historical trends point to advantages in valuing youth, which we do emphasize at RotoViz, much of that is built upon the benefit of early-career breakouts relative to ADP. Since most players break out in one of their first three seasons and fantasy managers are prone to wait and see a result before they react, we typically advise targeting young players who bear the hallmarks of an upcoming breakout because it represents one of our best chances at beating ADP. This does not mean older players cease ever to be valuable. If players are being pushed down draft boards because they are older, yet they still hit on several predictive metrics that indicate they may be devalued relative to cost, they are still buys.

Cooper is consistently good but lacks upside. In fact, he’s never finished higher than 10th in PPR, a feat he has accomplished twice. This kind of top end is useful on successful teams, but it isn’t league-winning. For that, we want to get closer to the apex of the position, which is more like the top three; there may be better candidates than Cooper in this range. In nearly a decade, he has never approached this level, so reaching it now seems unlikely. Cooper has a good Y/Route and reTRGMS, which he sustains most years. All factors considered, he is probably priced in an appropriate range.

As for whether Cooper is the selection in this range, we are forced to manage specific uncertainties: George Pickens (54.2 ADP) goes just after Cooper, and some indicators point to a Pickens breakout.^[1]As long as you don’t pay too much attention to the team-specific situation. Two second-year breakout candidates, Tank Dell (63 ADP) and Zay Flowers (53 ADP), are going in the same range; also, Stefon Diggs (48.7 ADP), who is a similar archetype with a better historical profile and likely a superior offense, goes off the board near here. I’m taking all four if they are available here because they have a better shot at the positional apex. I’m almost always going to air on the side of ceiling.