Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Atlanta Falcons while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume.

Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands of times. This year, I have added steps to better understand how a player’s fantasy scoring could increase or decrease if changes in his market shares or his team’s play volumes were considered. Although my projections will inevitably have some large variances from actuals, this process will allow us to better understand a player’s potential upside and downside. (Quarterbacks were not included in this process as more nuance would be required and this exercise felt like one more suitable for the other positions. If time allows, I will hone in on something similar for passers.)

Team Level Considerations

My baseline projection positions the Falcons as a middle-of-the-road team in terms of overall play volume. Specifically, it places the team in the 45th percentile for passing attempts and the 58th percentile for rushing attempts based on my 2024 projections set at the time this article was published.

Baseline Projections Player-Level Summary

The visual below highlights the key drivers of fantasy scoring based on my initial 2024 projections. For each player, I have included their percentile ranking for each stat, comparing them to other fantasy-relevant players at the same position. In this exercise, fantasy-relevant players are identified based on their team’s projected depth chart. For example, the stats of any WR listed as the WR1, WR2, or WR3 on his team will contribute to the percentile calculations for WRs.