Dave Caban shares his baseline 2024 projection for the Carolina Panthers while also considering the impacts of increases/decreases to market shares and team play volume.
Every offseason, I undertake the process of creating projections for every team. In previous years, this involved developing a projection that I believed would represent the average performance of all relevant players if a given season were played out thousands of times. This year, I have added steps to better understand how a player’s fantasy scoring could increase or decrease if changes in his market shares or his team’s play volumes were considered. Although my projections will inevitably have some large variances from actuals, this process will allow us to better understand a player’s potential upside and downside. (Quarterbacks were not included in this process as more nuance would be required and this exercise felt like one more suitable for the other positions. If time allows, I will hone in on something similar for passers.)
Team Level Considerations
My baseline projection positions the Panthers as a middle-of-the-road team in terms of overall play volume. Specifically, it places the team in the 64th percentile of passing and 41st percentile of rushing based on my 2024 projections set when this article was published.
Baseline Projections Player-Level Summary
- While a Steeler, Diontae Johnson eclipsed 85 receptions three times. His touchdown total of six could dip, but across 17 games his baseline projection is fairly similar to his historical results.
- Jonathon Brooks might have more questions but has a clear path to a significant role in the offense and a pickup in overall touchdowns could be possible.
- Adam Thielen’s baseline assumes that 10-year veteran takes a significant step back as Johnson usurps his WR1 role. Thielen’s 2023 production was significantly frontloaded and at this point in his career, it’s hard to imagine him reclaiming the flashes he showed to start the season. Furthermore, rookie Xavier Legette is expected to come on strong as the season progresses and push Thielen for targets. With an efficient season, he could outscore the veteran.
