Wide receivers are flying off fantasy football draft boards earlier than ever, creating a “WR avalanche” that’s reshaping best ball. Michael Dubner dives deep into the new best ball WR avalanche landscape, explores why WRs are going earlier than ever, and reveals the best ways to navigate the WR avalanche so you don’t get buried. Should we lean into Zero RB to get ahead of the WR avalanche, or should we zag to other positions?

Wide Receivers Are Flying Up Draft Boards, While RBs Are Sinking Like A Rock

Early-round WR ADPs have steadily climbed up draft boards in recent years. The 2024 season marks an even more dramatic shift, with WRs rocketing up draft boards earlier than ever. After Christian McCaffrey, WRs come off the board with each of the next six picks. The first round of Underdog’s Best Ball Mania 5 features just three locked-in RBs, with a fourth hanging on at the 1-2 turn.

Just three years ago, the WR12 was a mid-third round pick in BBM2, but now in BBM5, the WR12 is off the board by the early-second round. The WR24 is going two and a half rounds earlier.

The prices of wide receivers and running backs are generally linked like a seesaw — as WR prices soar, the cost of RBs has plummeted. The RB6, once a mid-first-round pick in BBM3, now isn’t going until the 2.04. Low-end RB1s, previously gone by the second round, are now routinely available in the fourth round.

How We Arrived At The WR Avalanche: Zero RB Tournament Winners Prove The Skeptics Wrong And Launch Zero RB into the Mainstream

A decade ago, Shawn Siegele wrote the article that changed fantasy football forever. Since its inception, Zero RB has been a controversial strategy, with passionate advocates and equally impassioned skeptics. However, over the past few years, Zero RB — and Zero RB-adjacent — drafters have seen remarkable success in best ball tournaments.

First, Justin Herzig won Best Ball Mania 1 with a Hyperfragile RB roster. While hyperfragile rosters attack RBs early, they share the Zero RB principle of limiting the total draft capital spent at the position. Hyperfragile builds originated as a strategy directly opposed to the antifragile build of a Zero-RB roster, but like Zero RB, they also emphasize WR firepower in the early and middle rounds paired with an elite TE. Justin’s BBM1-winning roster followed this blueprint.

BBM1 Champion Justin Herzig (Hyperfragile RB)

Drafters who were more comfortable with early RB builds now had their gateway to Zero RB principles through Hyperfragile RB.

Then back-to-back Best Ball Manias were won with another Zero RB-adjacent roster construction — double anchor RB — with Chessliam winning BBM2 and Pat Kerrane taking down BBM 3’s $2 Million top-prize. Both drafted RBs with their first two picks and then didn’t select another RB until Round 8 (Liam) and Round 10 (Pat). While the two early RBs are an obvious departure from the Zero-RB strategy, the emphasis on WR in the other high-leverage rounds accomplishes a similar goal.

BBM2 Champion: Chessliam (Double Anchor RB)

BBM3 Champion: Pat Kerrane (Double Anchor RB)

The success of hyperfragile and double-anchor RB in the first three Best Ball Manias set the stage for Zero RB to take Best Ball Mania 4 by storm with both the BBM4 champion and BBM4 regular season champion using true Zero RB roster constructions.

BBM4 Champion: Farid Shaheed (Zero RB)

BBM4 Regular Season Champion: NOHALFSTEPPIN (Zero RB)

Zero RB Utilization Rates

Examining past tournament winners, it’s clear why Zero RB has gained traction. As a proven tournament-winning strategy, Zero RB has grown in popularity, while Robust RB approaches have fallen out of favor.

Zero RB gaining the tournament-winning stamp of approval has silenced many critics and has even converted former skeptics into Zero RB enthusiasts. Best Ball Mania drafters are no longer just talking about Zero RB — they’re actively implementing it en masse now. Just look at all this yellow.

Best Ball Mania 5 ADP Draft Grid

Zero RB utilization rates are set to be higher than ever before. Previously, 2023 had the highest Zero RB utilization rate (9.6%), equating to just over one roster per draft implementing Zero RB. Prior to that, Zero RB was used roughly once in every two drafts. However, the 2024 ADP draft grid shows four different teams (Teams 3, 4, 6, and 11) with pure Zero-RB builds if a draft follows ADP exactly.

Putting More Context Behind Zero RB’s Dominance

As drafters have won millions of dollars implementing Zero RB, the ADP landscape become more WR-heavy. Let’s dive further into the success of Zero RB and why drafters are right to chase this strategy.