In the past, we’ve looked at big gap and small gap running backs to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. The idea comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs, and from similar research by Charlie Kleinheksel before that.

First, let’s define our terms: B1 and B2 running backs refer to a team’s RB1 and RB2 in backfields where there is an ADP gap of 98.5 or more. Those in backfields with a smaller gap between the RB1 and RB2 are referred to as S1 and S2, respectively.

Historically, B1 and S2 backs have produced the best win rates, but at very different costs. B2 backs have produced average win rates, while S1 backs have historically been the worst performers. Today we’ll focus on small gap RBs who might provide an edge in our fantasy drafts. Although early, we’ll use the FFPC Redraft ADP and identify small-gap running backs.

The ADP market has become more efficient, presenting opportunities to find value at running backs later. Often we’ll discover team backfields with uncertainties, suggesting the market is torn on the talent or opportunity. Let’s look at two small gap backfields to determine which ones to target.

Steelers’ Duo

Najee Harris (81.3 ADP – RB25)

Harris saw his 11.8 EP/G (No. 28) fall to a career low in 2023 from 18.6 (No. 2) in 2021 and 14.2 (No. 14) in 2022. That’s partly due to Jaylen Warren eating into his receiving role, evident in Harris’ career-low 8% target share. Meanwhile, Warren soaked up the fifth-highest target share at 15% while posting efficient numbers, as indicated by Warren’s 23rd-ranked FPOE/G.

Surprisingly, Harris posted above-average numbers in yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att) at 2.9, tying him with Warren. Harris evaded tacklers 18% of the time, a career high. With Arthur Smith as the Steelers’ offensive coordinator, the Falcons ranked fourth in rush rate at 47% from 2021 to 2023. That’s similar to how the Steelers operated in 2023, with a 46% rush rate (No. 5).

With the Falcons, Smith’s offenses focused on two main running backs before Bijan Robinson arrived. In 2021, Mike Davis had a 58% snap share and a 35% rush share compared to Cordarrelle Patterson’s 48% snap share and 41% rush share. Then Tyler Allgeier took on a 50% snap share and 38% rush share in 2022 while Patterson matched him with a 49% snap share and 36% rush share. In 2023, the gap widened with Robinson leading the backfield with a 68% snap share, a 41% rush share, and 16% of the team’s targets.

Smith’s offense could operate similarly in Pittsburgh, given their personnel. Harris’ ADP dipped to one of the lowest points of his career, and it looks like we might want to scoop up the value in the middle rounds.