There are a lot of hurt feelings to go around at the end of the Arthur Smith tenure in Atlanta. The Falcons bucked convention by deprioritizing QB and emphasizing the run game; they took a TE at fourth overall, the highest in NFL history, and they took an RB eighth in an era where such a thing is, according to analysts from sophisticated places like Harvard and MIT, a big whoopsie. There are undoubtedly bad feelings emanating from Fantasyland, where these two — Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson, along with fellow top-10 pick Drake London — were hardly used satisfactorily, and as a result, the community has added Arthur Smith to the Fantasy Football 10 Least Wanted, joining outcasts like Urban Meyer, Adam Gase, and Matt Patricia — the offensive one. And the fans in Atlanta, who already exist in a state of traumatized shock about their team ever since 28-3, have, by now, let whatever feelings left turn to catatonic numbness.
It’s true that Smith misjudged and underused the skill players on his roster. But QB play was the primary factor that led to his downfall. Marcus Mariota was deeply flawed, and Desmond Ridder was arguably worse. In hindsight, it appears to be a case of classic hubris for Smith. He had resurrected Ryan Tannehill, considered almost replacement level, and coached him to the best QBR in the league and an NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. Perhaps he believed he could replicate this success with another player. But alas, this never materialized.
Still, it doesn’t leave the Falcons in the worst position imaginable. As Smith exits unceremoniously, he leaves behind a roster that can compete, especially in this division, simply by finding the right guy. Enter Kirk Cousins from Stage Midwest.
A FEW REASONS TO LIKE THAT
Cousins was drafted in the fourth round, the second QB Washington took in 2012. He sat for a while, but he eventually wrested the starting gig from Robert Griffin III in 2015. Cousins was unheralded, fighting an uphill battle. Even when he produced numbers, people claimed it wasn’t real, and he was compared to empty-calorie earners like Blake Bortles. He didn’t do himself any favors by pressing the wrong Madden button against Philadelphia in 2015 and performing a time-wasting kneel-down when the opposite — a spike to stop the clock — was what was needed. Cousins’s famed mantra — “You like that?” — screamed weeks earlier en route to the locker room after conquering a 24-0 deficit in Week 7 against Tampa Bay wasn’t always so cute; at the time, it seemed like desperation for vindication, but it was far too early in his career for that. Between these early moments, his utter rebellion against worldliness, his dated taste for Creed, and his sleeve-worn faith, many perceived Cousins as corny and fake. That wasn’t challenged until he won the world over as the undeniable nice guy on the Netflix docuseries Quarterback; he conquered public perception there. For years, he had conquered the salary cap. And in a very underappreciated way, he’s conquered the gridiron all the while.
THE CREAM OF THE FREE-AGENT CROP
When comparing the best free-agent QBs on the market this offseason, Cousins is arguably the best option agnostic of financial considerations.
Joe Flacco, now 39, had the best PPR/G, paYDS/G, paTDs/G, TD rate, and paFPOE/G. Russell Wilson has better PPR/G for his career, but he and Cousins pretty evenly share some of the most predictive per-game stats.
The preference would be to use total accumulated stats rather than breaking the stats down by game, but Cousins has fewer seasons as a starter than Flacco and Wilson. However, if we take the past five years, we can see a better representation of him there.
Even missing half of last season, Cousins exceeded Wilson in every significant passing stat, only trailing Wilson in PPR points because of the obvious disparity in their rushing ability. Another relatively predictive stat among fantasy QBs is QBR, and Cousins’s career 98.2 QBR ranks fifth behind only Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Wilson, and Dak Prescott.
Using the RotoViz Screener, we can determine that the only other QBs since 2000 to reach minimum thresholds of 3000 paATTS, 39,000 paYDS, 250 paTDS, 65% paPCT, 7.0 paAYA, 5% paTDRT, 2450 paEP, and 300 paFPOE for their careers are Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Philip Rivers — four guaranteed Hall of Famers and one on the fringe and at least destined for nomination.
At 35, Cousins still has time to establish himself as one of the best QBs of his generation. Much of that will depend on his playoff success, which has eluded him so far. The Falcons present an exciting opportunity to do so.
