A sequoia fell in the woods on Saturday.

Since the Bears drew the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft, there has been no more dissected story than what they will do next. With incumbent Justin Fields, who just turned 25, playing some of his best football in the back half of 2023, some wondered if the Bears would use the pick to select highly touted QB Caleb Williams or keep Fields and trade the pick. Once it became clear that the Bears were set on taking Williams, attention turned to what kind of haul they could command for Fields. The buildup began with sound and fury, then it started to languish through mud, and finally, it stalled with a sputtering backfire.

On Saturday, Fields was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a conditional sixth-round pick in 2025. If Fields reaches certain playing time thresholds, the pick would transition to a fourth. In the end, Fields was like a credenza initially marked with a triple-digit price tag at the outset of the yard sale; yet, come four o’clock, the seller was satisfied simply to have someone haul it away. The sound and fury had not occurred; it was more of a whimper and a wince.

It was Pittsburgh’s second discount QB transaction in a week, as they had already added Russell Wilson for the veteran minimum in a savvy shot the night before the legal tampering period commenced, essentially kicking off this wild and robust free-agency period. The Fields trade also came with a report that head coach Mike Tomlin had called Wilson to guarantee he would be the starter. It was a significant shot to the bow for Fields’ dynasty managers. Now, only scattered questions remain: Is Wilson truly the unquestioned starter, how will the weapons in Pittsburgh be affected, and is Justin Fields worth nothing?

HOW DID WE GET HERE, AND HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?

For a long time, while he was in college, Fields was considered the no-brainer No. 2 QB in the 2021 draft class behind Trevor Lawrence. When the draft came, however, it became clear that the NFL didn’t necessarily see things the same way, and Zach Wilson and Trey Lance soared up the board while Fields tumbled to No. 11. In retrospect, it seems likely that Fields should have been seen as the second QB in the class, but that’s not to say he doesn’t come without his own dysfunction.

We should be careful about our presuppositions about Fields being a starter-worthy signal caller. In my research shortly after the Super Bowl, I used the RotoViz Screener to see who else had met his strange combination of fewer than 500 passing expected points (paEP) and -50 passing fantasy points over expectation (paFPOE) while also having more than 200 rushing EP (ruEP) and 70 rushing FPOE (ruFPOE) in his first three seasons of play. Fields was one of one, though some of his closest comps in similarity score are Colin Kaepernick, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Kordell Stewart, Tyrod Taylor, and Robert Griffin III. On the one hand, all but Taylor have produced at least one season in the fantasy top 12 at QB (Taylor was QB14 in 2016), as has Fields. This is, of course, due to their rushing ability. On the other hand, several of these names are retrospectively associated with disappointment and missed potential.

Fantasy football paints a picture of each skill player, and these perceptions can create real passion in fans. However, fantasy football only focuses on stat-producing or ancillary subjects that influence stat-producing. If pass blocking were a part of fantasy football, more people would appreciate Marcedes Lewis and Samaje Perine. If throwing the ball away at the appropriate time could be tabulated, perhaps sending Kyle Allen back to the bench would have tanked his dynasty stock, too. Since rushing yards are generally counted at 2.5 to 4 times the rate of passing yards, depending on format, rushing QBs have a significant advantage in fantasy football. As such, the fantasy community perceives Fields to be a little better than he is.

Yes, Fields’ price went down the moment Bears’ GM Ryan Poles picked up the phone and offered him up. But everyone in the league knew he was available and had an opportunity to match the offer, and a conditional sixth was the best the Bears could get. This is less than Washington got for Sam Howell, the Steelers for Kenny Pickett, the 49ers for Trey Lance, or the Cardinals for Josh Dobbs. While we may believe Fields is better than that, and we may understand that he will perform better in the event he gets in a game, we should also listen to what the NFL is saying about the player.

TWO PEAS IN A POD, IF ONE WAS A GREEN PEA AND ONE WAS WASABI

So, why is the league so out on Fields? One of the most cited issues about his game revolves around his sacks taken. Fields does take a large number of sacks, averaging 45 per season, but so does Wilson. Wilson has taken just two fewer sacks for 16 fewer yards than Fields since 2021, when Fields came into the league. Wilson is just four sacks shy of becoming the active leader in career sacks taken, trailing Aaron Rodgers despite 1,996 fewer career attempts. Wilson has lost 3,464 career sack yards, also second among active players.

It doesn’t seem fair to draw a line in the sand over sacks taken, as Fields and Wilson have been neck-and-neck over the past three seasons. So, how do the players fare in other areas? We can use the Screener to compare their careers per game.

Wilson is historically better as a fantasy asset, as he had nine straight seasons to start his career as a top-12 QB. Though Wilson is a good rusher, his work on the ground is inferior, with Fields compiling more rushing yards (ruYDS), rushing touchdowns (ruTDS), rushing expected points (ruEP), and rushing fantasy points over expectation (ruFPOE). But Wilson has historically trounced Fields as a passer, averaging close to 10 points higher in completion percentage (paPCT), 45 more passing yards (paYDS), 0.8 more passing touchdowns (paTDS), and 0.21 fewer interceptions (paINTS) per game for his career.

However, Wilson shows signs of possible decline, and Fields may still ascend. It may be better to compare only the past three seasons. This coincides with Fields’s rookie year and Wilson’s first season of apparent decline (his last season in Seattle).

The two have drawn nearer in recent seasons, with Fields inching upward as both a passer and a rusher and Wilson doing the opposite. The disparity in rushing has grown, and the discrepancy in passing has weakened; now, Fields scores more PPR than Wilson. Even so, Wilson remains better in every significant passing statistic, including QB Rating, where Wilson’s worst season (2022) is only narrowly worse than Fields’s best (2023).

A vogue criticism among smart industry people regarding QB play is pass location, suggesting there is underrated value in being able to work in the middle of the field. Using the RotoViz Stat Explorer, I added the yardage totals of the past three seasons for each player based on where their passes were thrown, then turned those into percentages. When comparing those percentages, we are presented with two remarkably similar players.

MIGHT EITHER QB BENEFIT THE WEAPONS AROUND HIM MORE?