Being the first overall pick in the NFL Draft is often daunting. Especially if you are a quarterback. There is usually a strong reason behind how that team came to select you with that pick. Namely, they suck. But in the case of Bryce Young, the Carolina Panthers made a blockbuster trade to go up and get their guy. This, they hoped. would help stop a QB carousel that has been spinning since 2019.
There were questions about Young during the pre-draft process. Was he too small and slight to succeed in the NFL? Should the Panthers select Young or go with C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson? In answer to the second question, they did indeed take the Alabama signal caller. But in spite of his diminutive frame, could he hit the ground running in his first season in the league? Young is the latest subject in the RotoViz Rookie Comparison series.
By The Numbers
If those numbers make for harrowing reading, you should see how Young fared in the advanced stats. The table below shows Young’s output and ranking among the 20 quarterbacks in 2023 with at least 400 pass attempts.
| Category | Output | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Completion % | 60% | 20 |
| Catchable Pass % | 71% | 20 |
| On Target % | 59% | 20 |
| Air Yard Conversion % | 43% | 20 |
| Atts per TD Pass | 48 | 20 |
| Pressure % | 38% | 18 |
| Sack % | 10% | 20 |
| Pressures per Sack | 4 | 20 |
| EPA per Game | -8.6999999999999993 | 20 |
| EPA per Snap | -0.13 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 11 |
| Fumbles | 11 | 19 |
All told, Young played 16 games in his rookie season. He completed 59.8% of his passes and finished the season with 2,877 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Young was held to less than 200 yards passing in 11 games in 2023. He had a single game with more than 247 yards. This came in Week 16 against the hapless Green Bay Packers defense. Young finished with 312 yards and two passing scores that day. They were the only touchdowns he threw in his last seven games. Indeed, Young was kept out of the end zone in eight games overall and had just two games with multiple touchdown passes.
Random Factors
It should be noted, as early as possible, that the Panthers did not exactly go out of their way to surround Young with top-tier receiving talent. Indeed, they sent their best wide receiver D.J. Moore to the Bears as part of the trade that landed them the pick they used to select Young. So who exactly did Young spend his rookie season trying to get the ball to?
Oof.
Young was able to form some degree of chemistry with D.J. Chark and Adam Thielen, who must have just posted one of the least heralded 103 catch-1000-plus-yard seasons in NFL history. But this efficiency was not something in evidence with the bulk of the Panthers’ pass catchers.
It hardly seems possible, but despite all of these encumbrances, was Young able at least to make some noise in fantasy terms in his first year?
Not really, no.
Young had a single QB1 outing as a rookie, with 25.3 points against the Packers in Week 16. He was the QB13 in Week 5 too, so clearly he has something of an eye for the NFC North. But after Week 10 Young was pretty much unusable in fantasy.
Historical Comps
To find players who enjoyed comparable seasons, I did what we’ve done in the past when carrying out this series. I set the RotoViz Screener to find rookies from 2010 to 2022 and selected some basic production and usage numbers as variables. Then I asked the Screener to find seasons comparable to my target player — in this instance, Young
