The pace of play at the team level is instructive in fantasy football. The faster a team is, the more plays they will tend to run. The more plays a team tends to run, the more players on those teams tend to score. Using the RotoViz Pace Tool, we can see the tendencies of every team in these areas so far in 2023.
I toggled to neutral game scripts (-7 to +7 point differential, excluding the last two minutes of each half) and launched a quick investigation, and these are the results after Week 16.
We should remember that, even extrapolated over 18 weeks, the sample size of an NFL season is relatively small, but this data set is dangerously close to reliable. The information is already incorporated into the RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP). But I like to see this isolated in case I want to give this projection area a little extra weight.
It is fitting that we end the season with the Chargers on top in neutral script seconds/snap. They have been at or near the top all season. That said, with Brandon Staley out, the Chargers ran 55 plays from a neutral script and ran at 28.3 seconds/snap, almost two full seconds slower than they have been for the season; and yet, they also ran 18% no-huddle from a neutral script. Regardless, this is a pretty small sample size. New Orleans and Dallas trail them to round out the top three, two teams that have been near the top of this list all year as well.
Also fitting, the Browns finish in first place in total snaps/60 minutes with a remarkable 75 plays per game, a number they have met consistently all year. The Cowboys are the only other team to hit 70, and the Panthers and Lions tie for third place with 69 plays per game, regardless of script.
Specific game context is vital in a limited sample, so while these are evidential indicators, they are only partially predictive. In this selection, I’ll highlight three games that feature fast-paced teams and three that match up with slower-paced squads so far this season.
The two lists may diverge, so we won’t always see the teams that rank high or low in the neutral script seconds/snap necessarily end with a similar rank correspondence in total snaps/60 minutes. A lack of correlation in the two separate areas can be explained in the following ways:
- A team chews up the clock with stick-moving drives that result in points, giving them a higher play total for an entire game without necessarily hurrying to hike the ball.
- A team’s defense smothers its opponent, often earning the ball back after a short possession, giving its team more chances with the ball per game than its opponent.
- A team spends very little time in a neutral script, so it compiles plays faster while chasing to get back into a game, plays that would not be reflected in data selectively collected out of a neutral script.
I’ve concentrated on the extreme outliers and games where the matchup ranks on the same half of the spectrum for both lists.
PLUS PACE MATCHUPS
NEW YORK JETS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Notable Players: QB Trevor Siemian, RB Breece Hall, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Xavier Gipson, WR Allen Lazard, TE Tyler Conklin, TE C.J. Uzomah (NYJ); QB Joe Flacco, RB Jerome Ford, RB Kareem Hunt, WR Amari Cooper, WR Elijah Moore, TE David Njoku (CLE)
The Thursday night game features the lowest over/under of the week at 35.5, but this does not reflect each team’s pace. Despite the flailing desperation that each squad has maintained at QB throughout the year (recently stabilized in Cleveland, still going in New York), both teams have run at a top-seven pace in neutral script seconds/snap. The Browns have accumulated the most total snaps/60 minutes in the NFL, although the Jets are toward the bottom in this category. The main reason for the low expected point total is that these are two of the finest defenses in the league. The main reason for the discrepancy between the play volumes of each team is that the Browns have maintained a competent offense. It is hard to sit Amari Cooper, Breece Hall, or David Njoku right now (and, to a lesser extent, Joe Flacco or Garrett Wilson), but we might expect floor rather than ceiling. The Browns are heavy favorites, but the pace of each team doesn’t seem to alter in this expected game script.
DETROIT LIONS VS. DALLAS COWBOYS
Notable Players: QB Jared Goff, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, RB David Montgomery, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Jameson Williams, WR Josh Reynolds, TE Sam LaPorta (DET); QB Dak Prescott, RB Tony Pollard, RB Rico Dowdle, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Michael Gallup, TE Jake Ferguson (DAL)
Another early island game, the Saturday affair between Dallas and Detroit, can be seen from the opposite end of the spectrum, as it is expected to be the highest-scoring game according to its 53.5 over/under. The Cowboys maintain a rocket-fast pace, as they have all year, but the Lions are more deliberate in neutral script seconds/snap. Both teams are top-three, however, in total plays/60 minutes. In the cozy confines of AT&T Stadium, where the Cowboys tend to play far better, a -6 spread seems fair for Dallas, especially since Detroit is equally road-weary. Detroit runs in the middle of the pack when behind by seven or more, while Dallas keeps their foot on the gas, maintaining the third-fastest seconds/snap while ahead by as much.
