The pace of play at the team level is instructive in fantasy football. The faster a team is, the more plays they will tend to run. The more plays a team tends to run, the more players on those teams tend to score. Using the RotoViz Pace Tool, we can see the tendencies of every team in these areas so far in 2023.
I toggled to neutral game scripts (-7 to +7 point differential, excluding the last two minutes of each half) and launched a quick investigation, and these are the results after Week 15.
We should remember that, even extrapolated over 18 weeks, the sample size of an NFL season is relatively small, but this data set is dangerously close to reliable. The information is already incorporated into the RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP). But I like to see this isolated in case I want to give this projection area a little extra weight.
The Chargers lead the way in neutral script seconds/snap heading into Week 16 and have been a mainstay toward the top of the charts. Just behind them are the Cowboys and Saints, tied for second place. The Browns and Vikings are the only other teams that get plays off in under 27 seconds in close games.
The Browns continue accumulating a lot of play volume and are way out in front. Behind them are the Panthers and Cowboys. All three have been poking around 70 plays or more all season, with the Browns the clear leader. Things remain status quo.
Specific game context is vital in a limited sample, so while these are evidential indicators, they are only partially predictive. In this selection, I’ll highlight three games that feature fast-paced teams and three that match up with slower-paced squads so far this season.
The two lists may diverge, so we won’t always see the teams that rank high or low in the neutral script seconds/snap necessarily end with a similar rank correspondence in total snaps/60 minutes. A lack of correlation in the two separate areas can be explained in the following ways:
- A team chews up the clock with stick-moving drives that result in points, giving them a higher play total for an entire game without necessarily hurrying to hike the ball.
- A team’s defense smothers its opponent, often earning the ball back after a short possession, giving its team more chances with the ball per game than its opponent.
- A team spends very little time in a neutral script, so it compiles plays faster while chasing to get back into a game, plays that would not be reflected in data selectively collected out of a neutral script.
I’ve concentrated on the extreme outliers and games where the matchup ranks on the same half of the spectrum for both lists.
PLUS PACE MATCHUPS
BUFFALO BILLS VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Notable Players: QB Josh Allen, RB James Cook, RB Latavius Murray, RB Ty Johnson, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, WR Khalil Shakir, TE Dalton Kincaid, TE Dawson Knox (BUF); QB Easton Stick, RB Austin Ekeler, RB Josh Kelley, WR Keenan Allen, WR Josh Palmer, WR Quentin Johnston, TE Gerald Everett, TE Donald Parham (LAC)
It’s difficult to take this one to heart because Brandon Staley has run one of the fastest operations in the league throughout his tenure, but things could change completely with a new sheriff in town. OC Kellen Moore did retain his job, and he does run a historically fast system, so it is difficult to say. Buffalo, the league leader in team first downs and second in time of possession (TOP), is favored to win by 12.5. Buffalo slows to 29.4 seconds when leading by seven or more points, good for fifth slowest in the league. Los Angeles runs eighth fastest at 24.1 seconds/snap when trailing by as much. It certainly would seem like Buffalo could control the pace, so if things go according to plan, we could see a slower game than we initially expected. Of course, if that happens, Buffalo will compound volume regardless. It’s hard to fit Chargers into our lineups in this one.
ATLANTA FALCONS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Notable Players: QB Taylor Heinicke, RB Bijan Robinson, RB Tyler Allgeier, WR Drake London, WR Van Jefferson, TE Kyle Pitts, TE Jonnu Smith (ATL); QB Gardner Minshew, RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Zack Moss, RB Trey Sermon, WR Michael Pittman, WR Josh Downs, WR Alec Pierce, TE Kylen Granson, TE Alec Ogletree, TE Mo Alie-Cox (IND)
The Falcons are surprisingly fast to the line, and the Colts have been in the second tier near the top all year in the category. The game is expected to be close, so the expectation is that these pace rates should hold more or less. A change to Taylor Heinicke should present no particular change for Atlanta.
