Using the RotoViz Pace Tool to Forecast Which Week 15 Matchups to Target or Avoid
Image Credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Justin Fields.

The pace of play at the team level is instructive in fantasy football. The faster a team is, the more plays they will tend to run. The more plays a team tends to run, the more players on those teams tend to score. Using the RotoViz Pace Tool, we can see the tendencies of every team in these areas so far in 2023.

I toggled to neutral game scripts (-7 to +7 point differential, excluding the last two minutes of each half) and launched a quick investigation, and these are the results after Week 14.

We should remember that, even extrapolated over 18 weeks, the sample size of an NFL season is relatively small, but this data set is dangerously close to reliable. The information is already incorporated into the RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP). But I like to see this isolated in case I want to give this projection area a little extra weight.

This week, there is a two-way tie for first and a three-way tie for third with the Chargers and Saints leading the way, followed by the trio of Cleveland, Dallas, and Minnesota. All five have remained near the top of this list almost the entire season. The Patriots and Falcons lag just behind, the only other teams that pace at under 27 seconds from a neutral script.

There are just three teams that run 70 or more total snaps per 60 minutes, and they are the Browns, Cowboys, and Panthers. The Browns and Cowboys are each on both lists. The Panthers show up as a team that often trails and plays catch-up, spiking their play total independent of any particular score.

Specific game context is vital in a limited sample, so while these are evidential indicators, they are only partially predictive. In this selection, I’ll highlight three games that feature fast-paced teams and three that match up with slower-paced squads so far this season.

The two lists may diverge, so we won’t always see the teams that rank high or low in the neutral script seconds/snap necessarily end with a similar rank correspondence in total snaps/60 minutes. A lack of correlation in the two separate areas can be explained in the following ways:

  1. A team chews up the clock with stick-moving drives that result in points, giving them a higher play total for an entire game without necessarily hurrying to hike the ball.
  2. A team’s defense smothers its opponent, often earning the ball back after a short possession, giving its team more chances with the ball per game than its opponent.
  3. A team spends very little time in a neutral script, so it compiles plays faster while chasing to get back into a game, plays that would not be reflected in data selectively collected out of a neutral script.

I’ve concentrated on the extreme outliers and games where the matchup ranks on the same half of the spectrum for both lists.

PLUS PACE MATCHUPS

CHICAGO BEARS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Notable Players: QB Justin Fields, RB D’Onta Foreman, RB Khalil Herbert, RB Roschon Johnson, WR D.J. Moore, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Cole Kmet (CHI); QB Joe Flacco, RB Jerome Ford, RB Kareem Hunt, WR Amari Cooper, WR Elijah Moore, TE David Njoku (CLE)

The Browns play fast and accumulate total snaps. The Bears, who started the season low in each category, are above average in play accumulation, although their natural inclination is to play slow in a neutral script. They are among the run-heavier teams in the league when they have their druthers, and the game is expected to remain somewhat close. The Bears may struggle to produce consistent offense against the Browns’ stout defense; then again, the Bears’ defense has been decent itself of late. The 38-point over/under seems fair, but it’s almost easy to envision any kind of script.

DALLAS COWBOYS VS. BUFFALO BILLS

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Mat Irby

RotoViz contributor since 2023, fantasy player since 1991, and someone who occasionally dabbles in full-time film work when no one's looking - even on a thing or two you've seen. Atlanta is for sleeping, but Dallas will always be home.

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