The pace of play at the team level is instructive in fantasy football. The faster a team is, the more plays they will tend to run. The more plays a team tends to run, the more players on those teams tend to score. Using the RotoViz Pace Tool, we can see the tendencies of every team in these areas so far in 2023.
I toggled to neutral game scripts (-7 to +7 point differential, excluding the last two minutes of each half) and launched a quick investigation, and these are the results after Week 13.
We should remember that, even extrapolated over 18 weeks, the sample size of an NFL season is relatively small, but this data set is dangerously close to reliable. The information is already incorporated into the RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP). But I like to see this isolated in case I want to give this projection area a little extra weight.
After getting the boot for one week in favor of the LA Chargers, New Orleans is again on top in neutral script seconds/snap, just edging out the Chargers. They are joined by Cleveland and New England, tied for third. These teams are all very familiar to us on this list; they just rearrange their places.
Cleveland continues to lead the way in total snaps/60 minutes, as they have for much of the year. They are followed by Dallas and New Orleans, who are tied for second with 70 plays. These are the only three teams with 70 plays or more, and New Orleans and Cleveland make the top three in each category.
Specific game context is vital in a limited sample, so while these are evidential indicators, they are only partially predictive. In this selection, I’ll highlight three games that feature fast-paced teams and three that match up with slower-paced squads so far this season.
The two lists may diverge, so we won’t always see the teams that rank high or low in the neutral script seconds/snap necessarily end with a similar rank correspondence in total snaps/60 minutes. A lack of correlation in the two separate areas can be explained in the following ways:
- A team chews up the clock with stick-moving drives that result in points, giving them a higher play total for an entire game without necessarily hurrying to hike the ball.
- A team’s defense smothers its opponent, often earning the ball back after a short possession, giving its team more chances with the ball per game than its opponent.
- A team spends very little time in a neutral script, so it compiles plays faster while chasing to get back into a game, plays that would not be reflected in data selectively collected out of a neutral script.
I’ve concentrated on the extreme outliers and games where the matchup ranks on the same half of the spectrum for both lists.
PLUS PACE MATCHUPS
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Notable Players: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne, RB D’Ernest Johnson, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Zay Jones, WR Parker Washington, TE Evan Engram (JAX); QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB Joe Flacco, RB Jerome Ford, RB Kareem Hunt, RB Pierre Strong, WR Amari Cooper, WR Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, TE David Njoku (CLE)
Cleveland has consistently been at or near the top of the list in total snaps/60 minutes and neutral script seconds/snap. With a smothering defense and a competent offense, even without Deshaun Watson, logging the fewest team first downs allowed and the season’s highest time of possession (TOP). Joe Flacco is the favorite to start on Sunday after a refreshingly competent performance a week ago against the Rams.
The Jaguars also run a decent play volume, holding the eighth-best TOP in the league. The game has an embarrassingly low 30.5 over/under, the lowest in recent memory. Even with each team logging a decent number of plays per game, the expectation is that there won’t be enough scoring to make this matchup exciting. In part, this expectation reflects the uncertainty surrounding Trevor Lawrence’s status.
