RotoViz subscribers know that winning often hinges on meticulous analysis of various factors: player statistics, team dynamics, and even the whims of Mother Nature herself. Weather conditions, often overlooked, can play a pivotal role in any game’s outcome. A few of the most well-known and craziest examples include the Fog Bowl, the Tuck Rule Game, and the Ice Bowl.

The NFL is unique in its willingness to embrace the elements, with most of its venues exposed to all weather conditions, which can dramatically impact fantasy football production. Any NFL enthusiast has seen quarterbacks skillfully navigating needle-narrow gusts while kickers combat cascading snowflakes during the chill of winter. Football allows for anything except lightning, and severe weather conditions may have a sizable impact on a game but can go completely unnoticed by even the best projections beforehand. So, keeping one eye on the coming weather heading into the weekend can be valuable.

For this report, I wanted to recognize the nuanced impact that precipitation, snow, wind, and temperature variations can have on fantasy football outcomes. I didn’t want to exaggerate or speak too anecdotally about these effects. These were my primary sources: “How Weather Can Impact NFL Games and Football” by Fox Weather (2022), “Weather and the NFL” by Rory Houghton-Berry, Edwin Park, and Kathy Pierce of Stanford (2016), “How Weather Affects Betting” by Covers.com (2023), and “Analyzing the Effect of Weather in the NFL” by The Spax (2020). Based on these sources, game predictions are compared to predetermined thresholds and ranges, and my opinions have been mostly disregarded. All forecasts are from The Weather Channel. All times are Eastern Standard.

GAMES THAT WILL BE PLAYED IN DOMES

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts – 4:30 p.m. Saturday – Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions – 8:15 p.m. Saturday – Ford Field, Detroit, MI

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints – 1 p.m. Saturday – Caesar’s Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams – 4:05 p.m. – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals – 4:25, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN GOOD/EXCELLENT CONDITIONS

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks – 8:15 p.m. Monday – Lumen Field, Seattle, WA. Expected temp at 45°, 48-56% chance of precipitation (0.01-0.02 in./hr.), wind E-SE @ 2 MPH (as of 3:02 a.m. Saturday). While any precipitation can create problems with passing accuracy, route precision, catching, fumbling, and field goal tries, the effects of a light shower, such as what is expected in Seattle, should be relatively small. There is no reason to run from this game.

Sunday Update: This game is reclassified in a positive way after a favorable Sunday morning forecast. Still with a very small chance for rain, there is now no accumulation expected. With no rain, this game should be all systems go.

GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN MODERATE CONDITIONS

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals – 1 p.m. Saturday – Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH. Expected temps between 52-55°, 0-2% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind SSE-SE @ 5-6 MPH (as of 2:25 a.m. Saturday).

Sunday Update: Previously, this game was listed as “good/excellent”, but with the new forecast on Sunday morning, there is now an expectation of winds up to 10 MPH moving westward. This is neither in line with the azimuth nor at a crosswind. This can cause some issues in several areas, including passing accuracy, ball tracking, and kicking accuracy, heightened on longer attempts, but the effects should be minimal. As such, the game receives a slight downgrade.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers – 1 p.m. Sunday – Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI. Expected temp of 41°, 6-8% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind WSW-W @ 9-10 MPH (as of 2:30 a.m. Saturday). The main issue in Green Bay is wind, which is expected to enter the moderate zone between 10-14 MPH. At this wind speed, there is a slight concern for passing and kicking, catching, and ball tracking accuracy, and all of the effects are exaggerated on longer attempts. The azimuth of Lambeau Field is Due North, so a WSW-W wind is nearly a direct crosswind, which should amplify the impacts, minimal as they are. Sunday Update: No significant changes

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans – 1 p.m. Sunday – Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN. Expected temps between 52-53°, 15% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind NW @ 9-10 MPH (as of 2:35 a.m. Saturday). As we see in Green Bay, the only genuine concern is wind. Again, we are at the lowest end of the moderate range. At this speed, winds can cause slight issues with passing accuracy, amplified on deeper shots, ball tracking, catching, and kicking accuracy, also made worse at longer lengths. The stadium in Nashville is set at SSE, so the Northwestern winds run more or less in line with the stadium, which is better than a crosswind, and it can even help in certain areas of the game when it is at a team’s back. Tennessee has some of the highest stadium walls in the league. Sunday Update: No significant changes

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots – 1 p.m. Sunday – Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA. Expected temps between 52-53°, 18-48% chance of precipitation (0.00-0.02 in./hr.), wind E-ESE @ 5-6 MPH (as of 2:54 a.m. Saturday). There is a chance for a light rain on Sunday in Massachusetts, but it should have minimal effects. Areas of the game that could be affected are passing accuracy, route running precision, catching, ball security, and kicking; at length, these effects are worsened somewhat.

Sunday Update: The rainfall should continue to be in the light range by technical standards, however towards the last quarter of the game, the density should pick up to 0.08 inches/hour, which is very nearly classifiable as heavy. This is a good point to remind you that the margins are relatively arbitrary, so if we want to think of this as a heavy rainfall, that isn’t necessarily wrong. Even still, we should also remember that three quarters of the game should be played in more acceptable conditions.

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills – 4:25 p.m. Sunday – Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY. Expected temp of 49°, 56-82% chance of precipitation (0.03-0.05 in./hr.), wind S @ 8-13 MPH (as of 2:58 a.m. Saturday). There is a light rain that should swell and become rather noticeable, mainly as the lights come on, as floodlights make the drops more visible. However, the significance of this rain is relatively minor, and it should compare to last week’s game between the Rams and Ravens in density. This slightly ill affects passing accuracy, catching, ball security, route precision, and kicking.

The wind Speeds are expected to be in the moderate range, which can also create slight issues with passing accuracy, ball tracking, catching, and kicking. The stadium walls in Buffalo offer very little protection from wind. The stadium is set at an ESE azimuth, and the wind is expected to run south, which makes for a near crosswind, amplifying effects. The consequences of rain or wind are all more understated if it is one of the other, but with wind and rain marrying at once, the game deserves a significant downgrade.

Sunday Update: The wind is now expected to fall beneath the 10 MPH threshold, which makes it classifiable as light, and it should not affect gameplay. The rainfall is expected to be slightly lighter, although it is still going to rain, so there are no changes in this regard. However, since the wind is below the minimum threshold, I’ve moved the game up to the “moderate” zone.

GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN POOR/BAD CONDITIONS

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns – 1 p.m. Sunday – Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH. Expected temps between 48-50°, 50-74% chance of precipitation (0.01-0.04 in./hr.), wind SSE @ 11-14 MPH (as of 2:27 a.m. Saturday). Cleveland is expected to get some of the worst weather of the week with a steady light rain accumulating at up to 0.04 inches/hour at points. This can create issues with passing accuracy, route running, catching, fumbling, and kicking, made worse on longer attempts. Even still, these should be relatively minor impacts at this density.

Another concern is the wind, which lies in the moderate range entirely, touching the lower and higher end of the tier. Wind speeds between 10-14 MPH can complicate passing, ball tracking, catching, and kicking, exacerbated on longer tries. The wind should also run at a direct crosswind throughout the game, making matters worse. Cleveland Browns Stadium has decently high stadium walls, but it also has several cutouts that allow for wind to enter off Lake Erie freely. With Cleveland enduring both a moderate wind and a moderate rain all at once, they are being placed in this lowest category as the weather may have a notable impact on the players’ performance.

Sunday Update: While the rainfall accumulation in Cleveland is now expected to be a bit lighter than originally expected, the wind is expected to be a bit stronger, creeping into the heavy range of 15-20 MPH. This can create a more significant impact in each area, and also contribute to more fumbling, strange as that may seem. Also, it can be attributed to less downfield play calling, as coaches may historically run shorter passes and run the ball more frequently.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins – 1 p.m. Sunday – Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL. Expected temps between 75-78°, 7-16% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind WSW-W @ 16-18 MPH (as of 2:52 a.m. Saturday). In Miami, the issue is a severe wind, which should remain high all game long. The effects may be far more stated at the 15-20 MPH range: difficulty passing, route precision, ball tracking, catching, securing the ball (yes, even fumbling), and kicking field goals. At these wind speeds, the effects should be noticeable. Hard Rock Stadium runs ESE, and the winds are expected to run WSW-W, so these are neither crosswinds nor headwinds. Hard Rock Stadium also has some of the highest walls and the best insulation from windy weather. Winds at this speed are correlated to fewer running plays called, and passes are usually completed closer to the line of scrimmage. Sunday Update: No significant changes