RotoViz subscribers know that winning often hinges on meticulous analysis of various factors: player statistics, team dynamics, and even the whims of Mother Nature herself. Weather conditions, often overlooked, can play a pivotal role in any game’s outcome. A few of the most well-known and craziest examples include the Fog Bowl, the Tuck Rule Game, and the Ice Bowl.
The NFL is unique in its willingness to embrace the elements, with most of its venues exposed to all weather conditions, which can dramatically impact fantasy football production. Any NFL enthusiast has seen quarterbacks skillfully navigating needle-narrow gusts while kickers combat cascading snowflakes during the chill of winter. Football allows for anything except lightning, and severe weather conditions may have a sizable impact on a game but can go completely unnoticed by even the best projections beforehand. So, keeping one eye on the coming weather heading into the weekend can be valuable.
For this report, I wanted to recognize the nuanced impact that precipitation, snow, wind, and temperature variations can have on fantasy football outcomes. I didn’t want to exaggerate or speak too anecdotally about these effects. These were my primary sources: “How Weather Can Impact NFL Games and Football” by Fox Weather (2022), “Weather and the NFL” by Rory Houghton-Berry, Edwin Park, and Kathy Pierce of Stanford (2016), “How Weather Affects Betting” by Covers.com (2023), and “Analyzing the Effect of Weather in the NFL” by The Spax (2020). Based on these sources, game predictions are compared to predetermined thresholds and ranges, and my opinions have been mostly disregarded. All forecasts are from The Weather Channel. All times are Eastern Standard.
GAMES THAT WILL BE PLAYED IN DOMES
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys – 8:15 p.m. Saturday – AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts – 1 p.m. Sunday – Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans – 1 p.m. Sunday – NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings – 8:20 p.m. Sunday – U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN GOOD/EXCELLENT CONDITIONS
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills – 1 p.m. Sunday – Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY. Expected temps of 35-37°, 19-47% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind WSW @ 3-6 MPH (as of 12:28 a.m. Saturday).
There is a slight chance of light snow flurries. As of now, these should not create any issues, as no accumulation is expected. We will continue to monitor the situation as we near game time, but snowfall can cause problems. Even so, the effects are often overstated, so there should be no genuine concern if it remains very light. Sunday Updates: No significant changes
