The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks
- Seattle comes into this game with multiple offensive injuries — both Kenneth Walker and D.K. Metcalf are questionable — but with favorable matchups in the passing game. Jaxon Smith-Njigba gets the fourth-easiest matchup of the week based on recent alignment trends.
- He will need to take advantage of this matchup because Seattle’s defense is poor against both the pass and the run. While they are just in the bottom third of the league in the EPA-based pass defense metrics, they are one the worst in the league in most advanced rush defense metrics.
- Pittsburgh’s running game has been good all season, but much of that efficiency has come from the nominal backup. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have almost identical expected point totals, but Warren has been much more effective as a runner, despite more of his workload coming in the passing game.
- Mason Rudolph did enough to start again this week, even though Kenny Pickett is available, though not fully healthy. Against Seattle’s lackluster pass defense, George Pickens might still be able to recreate some of the magic he discovered last week.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
