RotoViz subscribers know that winning often hinges on meticulous analysis of various factors: player statistics, team dynamics, and even the whims of Mother Nature herself. Weather conditions, often overlooked, can play a pivotal role in any game’s outcome. A few of the most well-known and craziest examples include the Fog Bowl, the Tuck Rule Game, and the Ice Bowl.
The NFL is unique in its willingness to embrace the elements, with most of its venues exposed to all weather conditions, which can dramatically impact fantasy football production. Any NFL enthusiast has seen quarterbacks skillfully navigating needle-narrow gusts while kickers combat cascading snowflakes during the chill of winter. Football allows for anything except lightning, and severe weather conditions may have a sizable impact on a game but can go completely unnoticed by even the best projections beforehand. So, keeping one eye on the coming weather heading into the weekend can be valuable.
For this report, I wanted to recognize the nuanced impact that precipitation, snow, wind, and temperature variations can have on fantasy football outcomes. I didn’t want to exaggerate or speak too anecdotally about these effects. These were my primary sources: “How Weather Can Impact NFL Games and Football” by Fox Weather (2022), “Weather and the NFL” by Rory Houghton-Berry, Edwin Park, and Kathy Pierce of Stanford (2016), “How Weather Affects Betting” by Covers.com (2023), and “Analyzing the Effect of Weather in the NFL” by The Spax (2020). Based on these sources, game predictions are compared to predetermined thresholds and ranges, and my opinions have been mostly disregarded. All forecasts are from The Weather Channel. All times are Eastern Standard.
GAMES THAT WILL BE PLAYED IN DOMES
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons – 1 p.m. Sunday – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints – 1 p.m. Sunday – Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Minnesota Vikings at Las Vegas Raiders – 4:05 p.m. Sunday – Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers – 4:25 p.m. Sunday – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – 8:20 p.m. Sunday – At&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN GOOD/EXCELLENT CONDITIONS
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers – 4:05 p.m. Sunday – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA. Expected temps between 41-42°, 2% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind SSE-SE @ 1-2 MPH (as of 2:30 a.m. Saturday).
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants – 8:15 p.m. Monday – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ. Expected temps between 35-38°, 2% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind W @ 8-10 MPH (as of a.m. Saturday). It’s a familiar scenario; here we go again. The only hiccup on the horizon is the wind. When the breeze is in the moderate range, between 10-14 MPH, it tends to throw a curveball into the mix. Passing accuracy, catching, ball tracking, and field goal accuracy all seem to take a hit, and the farther the attempt, the more dramatic the effects. MetLife Stadium is set on an SSE azimuth, and the wind is expected to run due west. The wind should run almost at a crosswind; however, as previously stated, the effects are relatively minor in this range of wind velocity, and the wind will actually pass in and out of this range from a lighter range where wind is rather insignificant.
Sunday Update: The wind speeds as of Sunday morning are now expected to be between 6-8 MPH, which is categorized as light and pose no notable threats to the game conditions. As such, the game can be reclassified as “Good/Excellent.”
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs – 4:25 p.m. Sunday – GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO. Expected temps between 41-44°, 0% chance of precipitation, wind WNW-NW @ 11-16 MPH (as of 2:32 a.m. Saturday). Kansas City should be free and clear of the rainfall, but there will sometimes be severe wind. The 15-20 MPH range is considered very heavy. At this velocity, wind can cause serious havoc on passing accuracy, route precision, catching, ball security (yes, players fumble more frequently in high winds), and kicking accuracy, magnified on longer tries. Also, coaches historically call more conservative plays when winds are at this level. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium sits at a SE azimuth, and the wind is supposed to run WNW-NW.
Sunday Update: With a massive downgrade in forecasted wind speeds, the maximum is now not expected to exceed 7 MPH, which is significantly different. The game is now recategorized all the way from “Poor/Bad” to “Good/Excellent.” It’s all systems go in Kansas City today!
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN MODERATE CONDITIONS
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears – 1 p.m. Sunday – Soldier Field, Chicago, IL. Expected temps between 35-36°, 1% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind WNW @ 10-11 MPH (as of 2:21 a.m. Saturday). The issue in Chicago is strictly a wind that barely lands in the moderate zone between 10-14 MPH. At this wind speed, we can anticipate a reduction in passing and kicking accuracy, amplified on longer attempts, as well as ball tracking and catching. The wind speed barely gets into the zone, so these effects should be rather minor. The wind will run diagonally across the field at neither a crosswind nor a headwind. The stadium walls at Soldier Field are 151’ and offer average wind protection.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals – 1 p.m. Sunday – Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH. Expected temp of 40°, 4-5% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind WNW @ 9-10 MPH (as of 2:24 a.m. Saturday). In Cincinnati, only a wind oscillating from light to moderate is expected to be an issue. At this wind velocity, we can expect a decrease in precision when passing and kicking, especially on longer attempts. This also applies to challenges in ball tracking and catching. It’s worth noting that the wind speed is just within the threshold, so the impact on these aspects is likely to be relatively minimal. The wind will run diagonally to the stadium’s azimuth. The walls at Paycor Stadium are an average of 157 feet high.
