RotoViz subscribers know that winning often hinges on meticulous analysis of various factors: player statistics, team dynamics, and even the whims of Mother Nature herself. Weather conditions, often overlooked, can play a pivotal role in any game’s outcome. A few of the most well-known and craziest examples include the Fog Bowl, the Tuck Rule Game, and the Ice Bowl.
The NFL is unique in its willingness to embrace the elements, with most of its venues exposed to all weather conditions, which can dramatically impact fantasy football production. Any NFL enthusiast has seen quarterbacks skillfully navigating needle-narrow gusts while kickers combat cascading snowflakes during the chill of winter. Football allows for anything except lightning, and severe weather conditions may have a sizable impact on a game but can go completely unnoticed by even the best projections beforehand. So, keeping one eye on the coming weather heading into the weekend can be valuable.
For this report, I wanted to recognize the nuanced impact that precipitation, snow, wind, and temperature variations can have on fantasy football outcomes. I didn’t want to exaggerate or speak too anecdotally about these effects. These were my primary sources: “How Weather Can Impact NFL Games and Football” by Fox Weather (2022), “Weather and the NFL” by Rory Houghton-Berry, Edwin Park, and Kathy Pierce of Stanford (2016), “How Weather Affects Betting” by Covers.com (2023), and “Analyzing the Effect of Weather in the NFL” by The Spax (2020). Based on these sources, game predictions are compared to predetermined thresholds and ranges, and my opinions have been mostly disregarded. All forecasts are from The Weather Channel. All times are Eastern Standard.
GAMES THAT WILL BE PLAYED IN DOMES
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints – 1 p.m. Sunday – Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans – 1 p.m. Sunday – NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers – 4:25 p.m. – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN GOOD/EXCELLENT CONDITIONS
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers – 8:20 p.m. Sunday – Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI. Expected temps between 29-30°, 7-10% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind NW-N @ 4 MPH (as of 12:40 a.m. Saturday). Sunday Update: No significant changes
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars – 8:15 p.m. Monday – EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL. Expected temps between 59-63°, 1% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind WNW-NW @ 6-7 MPH (as of 12:42 a.m. Saturday). Sunday Update: No significant changes
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4:05 p.m. Sunday – Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL. Expected temps between 74-78°, 19-30% chance of precipitation (0.00-0.01 in./hr.), wind WSW @ 3-7 MPH (as of 12:36 a.m. Saturday). The conditions in Tampa should be pretty optimal, but there is a slight chance of rain and a minimal accumulation in the forecast. Any rainfall should create issues with passing accuracy, route precision, catching, fumbling, and kicking, all made worse when the attempts become lengthier. However, this is expected to be a light sprinkle, so the effects should be as minor as possible.
Sunday Update: Good news! The light rain that was anticipated is no longer expected. With this change, the game can be reclassified as “good/excellent.”
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles – 4:25 p.m. Sunday – Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA. Expected temps between 53-54°, 33-73% chance of precipitation (0.01-0.02 in./hr.), wind WNW-N @ 6-7 MPH (as of 12:38 a.m. Saturday). In Philadelphia, the primary concern is light rainfall. This is historically tied to lower completion percentage and yardage through the air and is attributed to complications on route running precision, catching or securing the football, or kicking accuracy. Rainfall at any intensity can be harmful in these areas, but this is expected to be a light shower throughout most of the game. There is no reason to downgrade players based on this alone.
Sunday Update: Same as we see in Tampa, there is no expected precipitation accumulation, so all factors are considered optimal, and this game has been reclassified to “good/excellent.”
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN MODERATE CONDITIONS
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans – 1 p.m. Sunday – Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN. Expected temps between 59-60°, 1-15% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind WSW-W @ 8-10 MPH (as of 12:04 a.m. Saturday). The problem in Nashville is a forecast for up to 10 MPH wind speeds. Wind in the 10-14 MPH range is considered moderate, and the effects include slight drops in passing accuracy, passing yardage, route running, ball tracking, catching, and kicking. Longer attempts make these issues even worse. The problems should be less pronounced in this game since the max forecast wind speed of 10 MPH represents the lowest wind intensity in the moderate threshold; since the effects are mild in the range to start, this game should almost be treated as a game played in “good/excellent” conditions. Unfortunately, the gusts will be at a crosswind, which tends to amplify effects, but with 190′ stadium walls, Nissan Stadium provides well above-average wind protection. This game provides some of the better outdoor conditions, so we aren’t avoiding it. Sunday Update: No significant changes
