RotoViz subscribers know that winning often hinges on meticulous analysis of various factors: player statistics, team dynamics, and even the whims of Mother Nature herself. Weather conditions, often overlooked, can play a pivotal role in any game’s outcome. A few of the most well-known and craziest examples include the Fog Bowl, the Tuck Rule Game, and the Ice Bowl.
The NFL is unique in its willingness to embrace the elements, with most of its venues exposed to all weather conditions, which can dramatically impact fantasy football production. Any NFL enthusiast has seen quarterbacks skillfully navigating needle-narrow gusts while kickers combat cascading snowflakes during the chill of winter. Football allows for anything except lightning, and severe weather conditions may have a sizable impact on a game but can go completely unnoticed by even the best projections beforehand. So, keeping one eye on the coming weather heading into the weekend can be valuable.
For this report, I wanted to recognize the nuanced impact that precipitation, snow, wind, and temperature variations can have on fantasy football outcomes. I didn’t want to exaggerate or speak too anecdotally about these effects. These were my primary sources: “How Weather Can Impact NFL Games and Football” by Fox Weather (2022), “Weather and the NFL” by Rory Houghton-Berry, Edwin Park, and Kathy Pierce of Stanford (2016), “How Weather Affects Betting” by Covers.com (2023), and “Analyzing the Effect of Weather in the NFL” by The Spax (2020). Based on these sources, game predictions are compared to predetermined thresholds and ranges, and my opinions have been mostly disregarded. All forecasts are from The Weather Channel. All times are Eastern Standard.
GAMES THAT WILL BE PLAYED IN DOMES
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers – 8 p.m. Saturday – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons – 1 p.m. Sunday – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings – 1 p.m. Sunday – U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans – 1 p.m. Sunday – NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN GOOD/EXCELLENT CONDITIONS
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers – 4:30 p.m. Saturday – Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA. Expected temps of 43-44°, 13-21% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind S @ 5-7 MPH (as of 2:53 a.m. Saturday).
Washington Commanders at New York Jets – 1 p.m. Sunday – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ. Expected temps of 45-47°, 6-11% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind WSW-N @ 1-2 MPH (as of 2:59 a.m. Saturday).
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers – 1 p.m. Sunday – Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC. Expected temps of 60-63°, 0-2% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind E-ESE @ 3-4 MPH (as of 3 a.m. Saturday).
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears – 4:25 p.m. Sunday – Soldier Field, Chicago, IL. Expected temps of 52-53°, 7-8% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind SE-SSE @ 8-9 MPH (as of 3:03 a.m. Saturday).
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos – 8:15 p.m. Sunday – Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO. Expected temps of 26-30°, 1% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind NNE-NE 7-9 @ MPH (as of 3:06 a.m. Saturday).
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles – 4:30 p.m. Monday – Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA. Expected temps of 48-53°, 4-7% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), ENE-E wind @ 4 MPH (as of 3:10 a.m. Saturday).
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers – 8:15 p.m. Monday – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA. Expected temps of 53-57°, 2-3% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind WNW-NW @ 3-4 MPH (as of 3:11 a.m. Saturday).
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN MODERATE CONDITIONS
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans – 1 p.m. Sunday – Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN. Expected temps of 64-67°, 0-1% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind SE-SSE @ 10 MPH (as of 2:57 a.m. Saturday). The only concern in Tennessee is wind barely reaching into the moderate level. Ten MPH is the minimum threshold for this category, and the effects should be mild, but winds at this level can be historically correlated with difficulty passing, ball tracking by receivers, catching, and kicking field goals, amplified on longer attempts. Again, these are very nearly classifiable as light winds, and this game is as barely out of the “excellent” range as is possible. Don’t alter any strategy over this one.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4:05 p.m. Sunday – Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL. Expected temps of 75-76°, 0-1% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind E @ 9-11 MPH (as of 3:01 a.m. Saturday). Tampa is expected to have moderate winds, and just like in Nashville, these are barely in the moderate range, and I would beg you not to make any crucial decisions based on this forecast as the effects should be mild. The areas of the game that could be somewhat affected are passing and kicking accuracy, ball tracking, and catching, exacerbated on longer tries. It should form a direct crosswind, which can make these concerns more consequential, but I would strongly recommend giving this little thought.
