Knowing when to react and when not to is crucial in fantasy football. It’s important to distinguish what is truly significant and what is not. This article aims to clarify what requires our full attention and what can be disregarded.
FIVE THINGS THAT MATTER
TOMMY CUTLETS
I would suggest that it was all due to my assertion that Tommy DeVito had no reason to be on an NFL field in this space a few weeks ago; after all, he began to play good football right after I punctuated those sentences. In fairness, he did seem to be pretty underwhelming; he had been sacked 11 times, thrown as many picks as TDs, and lost two games by the combined score of 79-23 in his first two starts in mid-November. In a game before those two starts, when Tyrod Taylor left due to injury, the Giants even seemed hesitant to let him throw a pass, doing everything they could to avoid it. DeVito accumulated -1 yards on two completions. In that and the ensuing two games, he had accounted for a 57% completion percentage, 260 total passing yards, three TDs, and three INTs.
I would suggest it was because I wrote it up in this space that DeVito suddenly turned a corner and won three straight, tossing five TDs and no picks and posting positive FPOE in each. In Sunday’s game, he even took the team on his back for a game-winning drive, taking over at the Giants’ 25-yard-line and leading the team into range for a Randy Bullock field goal. I’d say it was all because of me, but maybe it could have been because of him.
I don’t want to get too carried away with the assertions. I got excited after Josh Dobbs’ first game in Minnesota, and I set logic aside too much; look at us now. But there are a few things about the events surrounding DeVito that matter.
For starters, DeVito keeps winning, which could be problematic for the Giants’ chances of getting an elite QB in the draft. It may keep HC Brian Daboll in a job this offseason. It could make New York a more formidable challenge for the Eagles, who have two games against the G-men left on their schedule and are reeling after two straight blowout losses as they battle for a division and home-field advantage. It may matter for Daniel Jones, who the team may want to move away from even if they can’t lock down Caleb Williams or Drake Maye; perhaps they could give DeVito a chance to prove he is or isn’t the next Brock Purdy or Tony Romo, entering midseason to little fanfare only to fly away and never return. He keeps players in New York relevant for our fantasy teams as well. And he’s a folk hero in the Northeast for what he’s already accomplished.
Let’s not say this doesn’t matter; let’s say it may not matter. Better yet, let’s say it probably doesn’t matter. As fun, as the story is, DeVito has only won three games — two against the Commanders and Patriots, who are almost objectively bad, and one against the Packers on a night when Jordan Love reverted to the frustrating character we got to know in the early middle-third of the season. To top it off, he’s still only thrown for over 200 yards once thus far. Intrinsically tied together, TD/INT rate and QBR are relatively volatile, particularly on a small sample, so his recent three-game stretch with 595 yards screams regression. Until Monday, he’s been a sack machine, surrendering 6.5 per game per start until finally drawing zero on Monday. There are a lot of reasons to still be skeptical.
Then again, the team keeps winning. And he looks confident, improving weekly. And in Week 14, he unleashed a new wrinkle: rushing ability. DeVito offset his 158-yard, one-TD passing day with a blistering 10-71 on the ground. That’s seven extra points to put in his pocket. With that, he has shown potential to insulate himself from disaster somewhat, at least in small samples.
And to top it off, he has a cozy trio of appointments in the next three against New Orleans, Philadelphia, and the LA Rams, suitable for the seventh-best schedule in fantasy for a QB. At this point, there is much worse we could do than DeVito if we’re coming down the stretch in our Superflex leagues.
PONCE ODELL LEON
Legend has it that in the early 16th century, the Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de León embarked on a quest in search of the Fountain of Youth, a mystical spring that had the power to restore youthfulness. De León set sail for the newly discovered lands of the Americas, hoping to find this legendary fountain.
Before Mark Andrews sustained a fractured ankle in Week 11 against the Bengals, there were serious conversations about the Baltimore Ravens being the best team in the NFL. Once that happened, the record stopped, and the interested spectators were left oscillating their heads. Of course, there was always optimism that the Ravens could hang on, mainly if Isaiah Likely could realize the potential many bestowed on him.
Likely has been good, but perhaps the most significant contributor in Andrews’ stead is aging veteran Odell Beckham. This weekend, more than any other, Beckham seemed far more like his old self. With 10 targets, a 25% target share, a 21.8 aDOT, and 218 air yards, Beckham was in Lamar Jackson’s crosshairs more than anyone, and he was his best weapon on offense, registering four catches, 97 electric yards, and a TD. Moreover, he’s had his two best weeks since Andrews’s injury and his best yet this past Sunday.
Beckham has had over 100 air yards in two of his past three and surpassed 200 on Sunday. He is 31 years old and is coming off his second ACL tear. It is possible that his recent ascent in opportunity could be attributed to nothing more than extra time to heal. It is also possible there was added motivation playing his old team, the Rams. And still, there’s the possibility that it is directly correlated to Andrews’ exit; Beckham may be the best target left standing in a potent offense, and he’s catching fire just in time to fill a much-needed role.
Then, there’s the fourth option: Beckham found De Leon’s coveted destination and kept a swig for himself.
COOKING UP MORE FANTASY SCORING
James Cook had one of the best games of his career on Sunday against Kansas City. His 25.1 PPR fantasy points, 13.2 FPOE, 12.3 receiving FPOE, 27 air yards, and 83 receiving yards were all career highs. His Week 12 game was also one of his best, as his seven targets, 23 opportunities, 69 YAC, and 9.5 receiving EP were also career highs. That’s a lot of career highs in two straight games — two consecutive games with new OC Joe Brady calling plays — many of which are passing game derivatives.
In the past two games, Cook has recorded two of the three highest receiving EPA totals of his career, and his seven and five targets are the most and tied for the second-most in any game of his career. He is being used in a new and dynamic way.
These are small sample sizes, but it is encouraging, to say the least, to see Cook involved in the passing game. The Bills have a brutal RB matchup schedule in the playoff weeks. Still, a closer inspection reveals that, while the Cowboys are tough on pass-catching RBS, the Patriots are about average at stopping pass catchers out of the backfield, and the Chargers are actually pretty bad at it. That should mean Cook has a tough matchup this week, then it’s business as usual. Hopefully, that business will remain as lucrative in this Joe Brady offense as we advance.