Knowing when to react and when not to is crucial in fantasy football. It’s important to distinguish what is truly significant and what is not. This article aims to clarify what requires our full attention and what can be disregarded.
FIVE THINGS THAT MATTER
MAKING FANTASY FINISHING TOUCHES FOR THE PLAYOFFS
I would postulate that many RotoViz subscribers have already made plans; for those who haven’t, it’s time to start thinking about the playoffs.
The to-do list goes like this: pick up handcuff RBs still lying around. The players we seek are no longer those with a little utility while the starter is healthy; instead, we strictly prioritize contingent upside. In some cases, the faces don’t change. Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris are both usable while the other is healthy; if one became injured, the other would likely achieve a consolidated workload. Situations like this are acceptable, but again, what we want on our bench at this point is upside if another player in the same position suddenly becomes absent.
Protecting our assets by harboring their real-life backups is a more optimized strategy than it would have been earlier in the season.
We can also hold players with high contingent upside at other positions. This is rarer to find elsewhere than at RB; a good example from the recent past may be Isaiah Likely, who has exhibited positive signs, especially in select opportunities whenever Mark Andrews has missed time. We want to look for other players like Likely at non-RB positions.
And finally, we want to start booking our streamers in advance based on their strength of schedule. A great way to do this is to use the RotoViz SOS Fantasy Streaming App. By setting a range of Weeks 15-17, we can isolate the playoffs and search for the most advantageous matchup combinations by position.
For example, team DST is a common position for fantasy managers to stream. According to the streaming app, the best situation for a DST across this specific time range is Cleveland, followed by Atlanta, Green Bay, Washington, and Philadelphia. Cleveland, in particular, may be difficult to stream because someone in your league may use them weekly. But the others may be out there. Holding any of these DSTs starting now could pay off big in the playoffs.
Rinse and repeat for any other position you regularly stream, identify substandard starters facing challenging playoff schedules, and seek potential streaming options that could represent an improvement in these weeks.
MIAMI’S VICES ENHANCE WADDLE’S WOES
The Dolphins can be effective while running or passing, but what is important is what they prefer to do when winning. While it takes a village to put up 45, as they did against Washington Sunday (or 70, as they famously did against Denver in Week 3), the Dolphins like to turn to the run while leading by seven or more points, according to the NFL Pace Tool. Not only are the Dolphins tied for eighth at a 56% run rate while ahead by seven or more, but they have been in this situation in eight games so far, one of only eight teams that have. If we consider only those teams, the Dolphins rush the ball the second-most in these situations.
Raising the threshold to a lead of 10 or more, the Dolphins rank tied for sixth at 61% and are one of eight teams to have enjoyed such a lead in seven games or more. If we bring the threshold up to a 15-point lead, the Dolphins rank tied for fourth in rush rate with 69% rushing, but they shoot up to first when considering only the four teams that have enjoyed such a lead in five or more games. The Dolphins have played 113 plays with a lead of 15 points or more, good for third in the NFL.
Miami is tied for the best record in the AFC after Week 13, and they should be favored in their next two, as they play the Titans and the Jets, each 4-8. Currently, the Dolphins are favored against the Titans by 13.5 points, and the spread against New York is bound to be similar.
The significance of this is that, at least for the next two weeks, we may see strong outings from De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. However, more importantly, the passing game options may be increasingly volatile, especially those not named Tyreek Hill. While Miami often uses their passing game weapons to build leads as they did Sunday, the problem is when/if they begin to pull away. And if that is early, as it was Sunday, the pass catchers disappear.
Making matters worse for these players — chiefly Jaylen Waddle — is the playoff schedule. Directly after this initial two-game stretch, the Dolphins play Dallas, Baltimore, and Buffalo, the ninth-worst playoff schedule for WRs. I’ve been a big Waddle truther, but it is beginning to feel like it will never happen for him in 2023.
