Bjorn Yang-Vaernet examines which players on the waiver wire are worth prioritizing for Week 12 and highlights others to preemptively stash.

The injuries in Week 11 did not make fantasy football better. Several star players left early and did not return, including:

• Joe Burrow
• Mark Andrews
• Devon Achane
• Aaron Jones
• Cooper Kupp
• Ken Walker

Injuries are part of the game of football, but this is too much. Fantasy football is much more fun when there is scoring and these guys all contribute to what makes watching football so great. I digress — the league moves on with the season and so do we.

For managers with these players on their roster, the waiver wire is likely the best and easiest way to replace their production. See who I am targeting down below, let’s go!

The waiver wire is one of the most important pieces of season-long draft leagues. It is the easiest way to acquire new players and every year there are gems to be found. The goal of this article will not only be to highlight which weekly breakout players to prioritize but find others to preemptively pick up before the breakout happens.

This article will only reference players that are less than 50% owned in ESPN leagues. The players are categorized by position group and within each group is the order of how I would prioritize them. 

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford (Available in 69% of ESPN leagues)

The QBs available on the waiver wire are getting thin following yet another QB suffering a season-ending injury. My waiver wire starter of the week is Matthew Stafford. At one point, Stafford was rostered in more than 50% of leagues, but a thumb injury put a pause on his season. Luckily, this means Stafford is available in the majority of leagues.

Stafford’s best attribute is his floor. Prior to his thumb injury in Week 8, Stafford had only one game with less than 15 fantasy points. However, his ceiling was also limited, with no games over 20 fantasy points. 

The main reason for Stafford’s lack of ceiling is that he is running extremely cold on TDs. Through Week 7, only 46% of the Rams’ TDs have come from the pass. In 2021, when Stafford was healthy for the full season, the Rams scored 80% of their TDs through the pass. While both of those figures represent extremes for the Rams, there is no reason to believe that those pass TDs won’t regress in Stafford’s favor during the course of the season.

The Rams play the Cardinals in Week 12. Although teams have tended to lean to the run in their matchups, the Cardinals’ defense can be beaten in any way teams choose. The Advanced Team Stat Explorer tool highlights how bad the defense is against both the run and pass. In particular, Arizona’s defense ranks among the bottom three teams in expected points added (EPA) per play against the pass and bottom five against the run. EPA is a useful metric to look at because plays that gain significant chunks of yards, gain first downs, or keep an offense on schedule are all rewarded in the metric.

Overall, Stafford is more of a safe play in Week 12, but has some decent upside if a couple of TDs break in his favor.

Jameis Winston (Available in 100% of ESPN leagues)

The following text is from my Week 10 article. The Saints were on bye on Week 11, so there is no additional clarity on the injury status of Derek Carr. If Carr is healthy, Winston is not a worthwhile stash candidate to consider picking up. 

In much deeper or 2-QB leagues, Jameis Winston is an interesting stash candidate. In Week 11, Derek Carr suffered an upper body/head injury in the third quarter and didn’t return. Winston took over for Carr and provided a classic Winston game. Playing from behind, Winston threw 25 times (in a quarter and a half of play) for 122 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 interceptions. One of his TDs was a play only Winston would ever consider throwing.

THE ROOKIE A.T. PERRY ON THE DOT FROM JAMEIS.

📺: #NOvsMIN on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kECSNGbyLL pic.twitter.com/fivPmao94Q

— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2023

While Winston’s real-life football value can be debated, his aggressiveness can lead to strong fantasy performances. When given the chance to start in New Orleans the previous two years, Winston produced a few very strong fantasy scores. Of course, that also came with equally as many poor performances.

With the Saints on bye in Week 11, Carr may ultimately be able to suit up and play in Week 12. However, Winston is worth holding on to in deeper leagues as the Saints play Atlanta in Week 12 — a team that funnels opponents to the air.

Running Back

Zach Charbonnet (Available in 68% of ESPN leagues)

After a few weeks of listing Zach Charbonnet as my top stash and theorizing what his role could be if Ken Walker were to ever go down, the reality played out on Sunday. Walker left Week 11’s game midway through the first quarter with an oblique injury and did not return. In his absence, Charbonnet received RB1 usage, playing on 85% of snaps, running a route on 74% of dropbacks, and touching the ball 21 times. Charbonnet had 15 rush attempts and six targets, the modern-day workhorse role for an RB.

Walker’s injury is “legit” according to head coach Pete Carroll and I assume it will be an uphill battle for Walker to play by Thursday’s Thanksgiving night game. This sets up Charbonnet to receive the bulk of the workload for at least one game. Despite the name-cachet of the 49ers, they have not been immortal to RBs. During the last five games, the 49ers have allowed an RB to gain 50 yards or more and score a TD on three separate occasions. While the strength of schedule streaming app ranks the matchup against San Francisco as below-average, Charbonnet’s value should remain intact regardless of game flow because of his usage in the pass game.