The pace of play at the team level is instructive in fantasy football. The faster a team is, the more plays they will tend to run. The more plays a team tends to run, the more players on those teams tend to score. Using the RotoViz Pace Tool, we can see the tendencies of every team in these areas so far in 2023.
I toggled to neutral game scripts (-7 to +7 point differential, excluding the last two minutes of each half) and launched a quick investigation, and these are the results after Week 9.
We’re finally at a data set that matters, but the results will always be somewhat volatile when dealing with a smaller sample size. Also, the information is already incorporated into the RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP). But I like to see this isolated in case I want to give this projection area a little extra weight.
This week, an old friend has emerged to reclaim the top spot: the New England Patriots, who held up as the fastest team in the NFL regarding neutral script seconds/snap for seven weeks before yielding to the New Orleans Saints for a couple of weeks. The Saints drop down to second, and the Chargers, who have bounced around in this area all year long, are back in the top three. The Indianapolis Colts, who were among the faster teams in the league for two months, have started to backslide. The Atlanta Falcons are surprisingly climbing the charts. Stay tuned.
The Cleveland Browns are number one with a bullet in total snaps/60 minutes, as they have been, with 75 plays in regulation. The Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints round out the top three, tied with 71 total plays/60 minutes apiece. The Saints are the only franchise to make both lists.
Specific game context is vital in a limited sample, so while these are evidential indicators, they are only partially predictive. In this selection, I’ll highlight three games that feature fast-paced teams and three that match up with slower-paced squads so far this season.
The two lists may diverge, so we won’t always see the teams that rank high or low in the neutral script seconds/snap necessarily end with a similar rank correspondence in total snaps/60 minutes. A lack of correlation in the two separate areas can be explained in the following ways:
- A team chews up the clock with stick-moving drives that result in points, giving them a higher play total for an entire game without necessarily hurrying to hike the ball.
- A team’s defense smothers its opponent, often earning the ball back after a short possession, giving its team more chances with the ball per game than its opponent.
- A team spends very little time in a neutral script, so it compiles plays faster while chasing to get back into a game, plays that would not be reflected in data selectively collected out of a neutral script.
I’ve concentrated on the extreme outliers and games where the matchup ranks on the same half of the spectrum for both lists.
PLUS PACE MATCHUPS
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS
Notable Players: QB Deshaun Watson, RB Jerome Ford, RB Kareem Hunt, WR Amari Cooper, WR Elijah Moore, TE David Njoku (CLE); QB Lamar Jackson, RB Gus Edwards, RB Justice Hill, RB Keaton Mitchell, WR Zay Flowers, WR Odell Beckham, WR Rashod Bateman, WR Nelson Agholor, TE Mark Andrews
This matchup is primarily propped up by Cleveland, among the fastest teams in the league in neutral script seconds/snap and the league leader with 75 total snaps/60 minutes. They are dominant defensively, allowing the fewest first downs per week at 12.0, over four fewer than anyone else, and creating the most defensive turnovers per game at 2.125. As a result of this and having a functional offense, they have the best time of possession (TOP) in the league at over 34 minutes per game in regulation.
The Ravens are also dominant defensively, owning the No. 1 defensive in expected points and allowing the second-fewest first downs in the league. Baltimore ranks fourth in TOP, and they rank in the top half of the league in total plays/60 minutes. Sadly, with arguably the best two defenses in the league facing off in this intriguing matchup, the over/under is tied for the second-lowest of the week at 38.5, with the Ravens leading the way as 6-point favorites.
