The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (in Frankfurt)
This game in Frankfurt, Germany, has the second-highest total of the week. Both teams have explosive passing offenses. But both also have effective passing defenses.
The Dolphins are averaging 15.3 total passing game FPOE per game — by far the most in the league. They have the top offensive line and rank No. 2 in EPA per attempt, passing success rate, and passing boom rate.
The Chiefs appear somewhat pedestrian by comparison, but still come in with one of the top passing attacks. No team’s wide receivers generate more separation than Kansas City’s. They are a top-six team in both EPA per pass attempt and passing success rate.
They struggle to prevent quarterback pressures, and Miami’s pass rush ranks No. 2 in pressure rate. The Dolphins could cause some trouble for Mahomes if they can consistently get to him in the backfield. Yet they do allow a high success rate on opposing pass attempts — K.C. should still be able to move the ball through the air.
On the other side, only one team allows a lower passing success rate than the Chiefs. Only three allow less EPA per pass attempt. Only four allow less FPOE per game. This certainly isn’t the easiest passing matchup Miami will face. The good news is they should be able to rely on their running game, which is basically just as good as their passing attack.
Raheem Mostert has been held out or limited in practice all week, but enters the game without an injury designation. It remains to be seen whether his workload will be limited in the game, but the team’s confidence in his health is a good sign. The other good sign for the Dolphins’ running game is that the Chiefs are No. 27 in EPA allowed per rush attempt and No. 26 in rushing success rate allowed. Only a handful of teams are worse against the run.
One of those teams is the Dolphins. They rank 31st in EPA allowed and 27th in success rate allowed, while also coming in at No. 28 in rushing boom rate allowed. Kansas City’s rushing offense doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, but one thing they have excelled at so far in 2023 is turning carries into big gains and long scores. They rank fourth in rushing boom rate.
Isiah Pacheco didn’t put up a big fantasy day against Denver’s pushover rushing defense in Week 8, but it wasn’t for lack of rushing efficiency — he gained 40 yards on just eight carries. Game script depressed his opportunity. Considering how quickly Miami can put up points, it’s very possible Pacheco will get scripted out of the game again. Of course, Pacheco had four targets to Jerick McKinnon’s two (Clyde Edwards-Helaire had none), so it’s not as though this backfield is a timeshare. Pacheco has seen at least 10% of the targets in more than half of K.C.’s games.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons
The Vikings traded for Josh Dobbs after losing Kirk Cousins for the season. He won’t be starting in Week 9, but he reportedly will be active. Rookie Jaren Hall will be making his first start. Hall attempted only four passes in Week 8, but he connected with receivers on three of those attempts and gained 23 yards. It definitely could have been worse. He did also lose a fumble, so in one way it was worse. The good news is he now gets to face a Falcons defense that allows 7.4 FPOE to opposing passing attacks, and generates pressure on only about 32% of opponent dropbacks.
We can expect the Vikings to be somewhat less pass happy than they’ve been so far in 2023, but Week 9 might not be the time to change tack. The Falcons allow 0.06 EPA per attempt in the passing game, but -0.2 in the rushing game. They allow a big passing play on over 26% of opponent attempts, but allow a big rushing play on only 8% of opponent carries.
The Falcons will also be without a key player, as Drake London has been ruled out with a groin injury. Of course it’s debatable as to whether Atlanta indeed views London as a key player, but we’ll assume his absence hurts the passing game overall. Taylor Heinicke will make his first start for the Falcons, and gets a relatively weak Vikings defense on the other side. As much as the Falcons want to run the ball, that’s not the optimal way to attack Minnesota. It might be wishful thinking, but I am expecting we’ll see extra targets for both Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson.
