Sweater Weather Showdowns: a Week 11 NFL Weather Report (with Sunday Updates)
Image Credit: Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Kenny Pickett.

RotoViz subscribers know that winning often hinges on meticulous analysis of various factors: player statistics, team dynamics, and even the whims of Mother Nature herself. Weather conditions, often overlooked, can play a pivotal role in any game’s outcome. A few of the most well-known and craziest examples include the Fog Bowl, the Tuck Rule Game, and the Ice Bowl.

The NFL is unique in its willingness to embrace the elements, with most of its venues exposed to all weather conditions, which can dramatically impact fantasy football production. Any NFL enthusiast has seen quarterbacks skillfully navigating needle-narrow gusts while kickers combat cascading snowflakes during the chill of winter. Football allows for anything except lightning, and severe weather conditions may have a sizable impact on a game but can go completely unnoticed by even the best projections beforehand. So, keeping one eye on the coming weather heading into the weekend can be valuable.

For this report, I wanted to recognize the nuanced impact that precipitation, snow, wind, and temperature variations can have on fantasy football outcomes. I didn’t want to exaggerate or speak too anecdotally about these effects. These were my primary sources: “How Weather Can Impact NFL Games and Football” by Fox Weather (2022), “Weather and the NFL” by Rory Houghton-Berry, Edwin Park, and Kathy Pierce of Stanford (2016)“How Weather Affects Betting” by Covers.com (2023), and “Analyzing the Effect of Weather in the NFL” by The Spax (2020). Based on these sources, game predictions are compared to predetermined thresholds and ranges, and my opinions have been mostly disregarded. All forecasts are from The Weather Channel. All times are Eastern Standard.

GAMES THAT WILL BE PLAYED IN DOMES

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions – 1 p.m. Sunday – Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans – 1 p.m. Sunday – NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams – 4:25 p.m. Sunday – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN EXCELLENT CONDITIONS

Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers – 1 p.m. Sunday – Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI. Expected temps between 44-45°, 1% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind NE-ENE @ 5-6 MPH (as of 7:44 p.m. Friday). Sunday Update: No Significant Changes

New York Giants at Washington Commanders – 1 p.m. Sunday – FedEx Field, Landover, MD. Expected temps between 57-58°, 0% chance of precipitation, wind WNW @ 6-8 MPH (as of 7:49 p.m. Friday). Sunday Update: No Significant Changes

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers – 1 p.m. Sunday – Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC. Expected temps between 61-64°, 0% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind NE-E @ 3 MPH (as of 7:51 p.m. Friday). Sunday Update: No Significant Changes

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 p.m. Sunday – EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL. Expected temps between 74-76°, 1-5% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind NE @ 7-8 MPH (as of 7:54 p.m. Friday). Sunday Update: No Significant Changes

GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN FAIR/GOOD CONDITIONS

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns – 1 p.m. Sunday – Cleveland Browns, Cleveland, OH. Expected temps between 47-48°, 1-2% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hr.), wind NW-NNW @ 10-12 MPH (as of 6:59 p.m. Friday). Keeping with a standard Cleveland narrative, the story here is moderate wind. Moderate wind should cause slight downgrades in passing yardage and accuracy, route running, ball tracking, catching, and kicking, all amplified on longer attempts. The effects of moderate winds are generally tenable. However, the effects will all be amplified as the azimuth of the stadium is ENE, and the wind will be NW-NNW, meaning it should be a crosswind. Cleveland Browns Stadium has reasonably high 171’ stadium walls, but with three massive cutouts sprinkled around the stadium, wind enters the building quite easily off of neighboring Lake Eerie. This is nothing new this time of year, as there may not be another stadium with a more extraordinary reputation for strong swirling winds. With QBs Kenny Pickett and Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting, the over/under is set at a laughably low 33.5 after, at one point being as low as 32.5; if we’re running from these fantasy pieces, it’s probably not because of the wind. Sunday Update: No Significant Changes

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Mat Irby

RotoViz contributor since 2023, fantasy player since 1991, and someone who occasionally dabbles in full-time film work when no one's looking - even on a thing or two you've seen. Atlanta is for sleeping, but Dallas will always be home.

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