The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans
- The Texans are red hot, coming off wins against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati in which they scored 69 combined points. The Cardinals’ passing defense doesn’t look like it will stand in the way of another 30-point outing. Only one team allows a higher passing success rate and no team creates less pressure against opposing quarterbacks.
- C.J. Stroud leads all QBs in total FPOE over the last two weeks. Noah Brown leads all players (at all positions) in FPOE over the last two weeks.
- Arizona ranks 30th in total passing game FPOE allowed (passing plus receiving FPOE). Keep a close eye on Brown’s status — he did not practice on Friday because of a knee injury and is questionable for Sunday’s game.
- The Cardinals’ passing numbers are not yet fully accounting for Kyler Murray. They are No. 30 in passing EPA per attempt, but he is all but certain to help them outplay this ranking. The Texans’ pass defense presents a good opportunity for Arizona to improve their numbers. They are No. 25 in EPA allowed per pass attempt and No. 24 in passing success rate allowed.
- According to the Weekly Game Level Similarity Projections, only three QBs have a higher 75th-percentile outcome than Murray.
- Of course, one of those QBs is Stroud. This game’s total of 48 is tied for the highest on the slate, but the GLSP makes that sound too modest.
- Because of how explosive the passing offenses might be, we may not see a lot of rushing opportunity. Dameon Pierce has been ruled out for the third straight week, meaning Devin Singletary will try to build on his 150-yard performance. The Cardinals aren’t a scary rush defense, but Singletary’s chances to put up a good score likely hinge on the Cardinals’ (in)ability to keep up with the high-flying Texans’ offense. That said, even if rushing opportunities are hard to come by, Singletary could get some touches near the goal line and see some scoring opportunities.
- Arizona’s rushing game has been solid, even without their starter for much of the season. James Conner returned to action last week and carried the ball 16 times for 73 yards. He was not targeted in the passing game and mildly underperformed his opportunity, but it’s likely we see the Cardinals try to involve him more and in more exciting ways. If the Texans are scoring, Conner’s rushing opportunities could also be depressed. But on a team with few established receiving weapons, Conner’s pass-game ability could prove useful.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
- Justin Fields makes his return as the Bears travel to Detroit to face a tough division rival. The Bears’ passing-game numbers only partially reflect Fields’ time under center — there’s a decent likelihood Chicago can outplay their past statistics. For one thing, Detroit’s pass defense allows successful passing plays and big passing plays at a higher rate than all but four teams. On the other hand, the Lions do boast the No. 8 pass rush in terms of pressure rate, while Chicago’s offensive line ranks No. 29 in pressure rate allowed.
- The Bears will have a tough time running against the Lions, who are above average in most defensive rushing metrics and top 10 in many. It won’t help that D’Onta Foreman is questionable with an ankle injury. Chicago is expected to activate Khalil Herbert ahead of this game, but it remains to be seen whether he will play a large role in his first game back from IR.
- The Lions could also have a difficult time running the ball against a Bears’ defense that ranks No. 1 in EPA allowed per carry and No. 2 in rushing success rate allowed. Although Detroit has the No. 4 rushing offense in fantasy efficiency, Chicago is No. 2 in rushing FPOE allowed. This isn’t the best matchup for David Montgomery, who already seems to have lost some of his workload after Jahmyr Gibbs excelled in Montgomery’s absence.
- The good news for Detroit is that they won’t need to run the ball that much if they don’t want to. The Bears are dead last in passing EPA allowed. Only four teams are worse at generating pressure against opposing QBs. Against the Lions’ No. 7 offensive line and the fifth-most efficient passing offense, Chicago’s defense could struggle. Gibbs stands to benefit as the primary pass-catching RB. Amon-Ra St. Brown should also have little trouble getting open — he has one of the best matchups according to the alignment data.
- Sam LaPorta’s alignment trends don’t match up as well with the Bears’ defense, but the rookie has produced a TE1 performance in two-thirds of his games, and has been at least a top-24 option in the other third. It may not be wise to bet against him.
