The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Don’t miss coverage of the early games in Part 1.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers
David Montgomery has been a full participant all week and is set to make his return after missing two games with a rib injury. Yet there are legitimate questions as to whether he will return to the role he had previously occupied. Montgomery had been consistently leading the team’s RBs in opportunity share prior to his injury.
Detroit Lions RB Opportunity Share by Week
Since then, however, Jahmyr Gibbs has strengthened his case to be the team’s lead back. He’s produced back-to-back games of nearly 30 PPR points, including one against a tough Baltimore defense.
No RB has scored more points per game than Gibbs over the last three weeks. He’s the RB4 in total points over that time frame despite playing only two games. (Detroit was on a bye last week.)
The point is that it’s not going to be so easy for Montgomery to relegate Gibbs to a backup role after the rookie has justified his real-world draft capital. What’s most likely is we see Montgomery handle some carries between the 20s, as well as some of the short-yardage and goal-line work, but to generally be the second option in the backfield. Gibbs is already the high-value touch leader in the backfield, while Montgomery’s TRAP profile is not ideal for fantasy. I’d expect this gap to widen going forward.
This is especially likely to be true against a Chargers defense that is generally strong against the run but still presents a positive matchup for opposing RBs.
While Los Angeles is No. 8 in rushing EPA allowed and No. 9 in rushing FPOE allowed, they are No. 24 in passing EPA allowed and No. 22 in total passing game FPOE allowed. Indeed, over the last five games they’ve been able to limit RB rushing production but have been torched by receiving backs.
Gibbs should be in for a big day, but the Chargers could have an equally difficult time stopping Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
Detroit presents a slightly more difficult matchup for L.A.’s passing attack. They rank No. 10 in passing EPA allowed and No. 9 in FPOE allowed. Their pass rush generates pressure on over 38% of opponent dropbacks. Yet because Detroit has a high-powered offense that’s capable of scoring quickly — and because the Chargers are not that good at running the ball — Los Angeles will still test the Lions’ pass defense. It won’t be the easiest matchup, but Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen are going to be the centerpieces of the Chargers’ game plan nonetheless.
