The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.

Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.

Here’s an early week preview featuring the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games. Stay tuned for the full version later in the week.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

• The Packers get one of the easier passing matchups, but the last time these teams met, Green Bay’s No. 2 offensive line was a non-factor.
• Detroit’s pass rush ranks No. 7 in the league, and they caused problems for Jordan Love in Week 4, sacking him five times and forcing two interceptions.
• However, the Packers might need Love to make plays in order to have a chance in this game. Aaron Jones has already been ruled out, and A.J. Dillon is questionable.
• Even if Dillon can play, Green Bay may still struggle. Dillon has been one of the least efficient RBs this season.

• The Lions will do them no favors. They rank No. 3 in rushing boom rate allowed, and No. 2 in yards after contact allowed.
• At the same time, the Packers may not have the luxury of relying on their rushing game. Detroit has one of the most explosive offenses, and the Packers are somewhat susceptible to big plays.
• Although Green Bay has good peripherals, they are merely average in passing EPA allowed, passing success rate allowed, and passing boom rate allowed. They will need to be more than merely average to stop the Lions’ passing offense that ranks No. 5 in passing success rate.
• That said, Detroit will have a much easier time attacking Green Bay on the ground. Jahmyr Gibbs used David Montgomery’s absence to announce his arrival, and he hasn’t looked back, producing an RB1 performance in each of the last four games.

• The Lions are the No. 1 team in rushing boom rate, while the Packers are No. 3 in rushing boom rate allowed.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

• Sam Howell leads all players in pass attempts, completions and passing yards. He’s dropped back to pass nearly 100 times more than the No. 2 player. He also leads in sacks taken and interceptions thrown. Against the Cowboys, we’ll likely see all of these leads grow substantially. Dallas is No. 1 in pressure rate and No. 2 in EPA allowed per pass attempt. They also have an effective passing offense, which will force the Commanders to play aggressively.
• Washington likes to throw, but has done so with only mixed success. None of their receivers have good matchups this week according to the alignment trends.

• Nevertheless, pure passing volume may be enough to give one or more of these players a decent fantasy outing.
• Dallas is weaker against the run, ranking 31st in rushing success rate allowed. Washington could take advantage of this — they are No. 1 in yards after contact and No. 2 in evasion rate. Brian Robinson Jr. has been one of the more efficient backs in the league.

• It goes against everything Washington has been doing this year, but feeding Robinson and their running game early and often may be a way to limit Dallas’ offensive possessions and keep the game close.
• Considering the Commanders’ offensive philosophy, however, this is probably not the most likely way the game will play out.
• Instead, the Cowboys will have many opportunities to attack Washington’s ineffective pass defense. The Commanders are dead last in passing game FPOE allowed. They are No. 30 in EPA allowed per pass attempt.
• Washington looks somewhat stronger against the run, and the Cowboys have not been as good at running the ball. However, in Week 11 Tony Pollard finally looked like the back drafters were hoping they were getting in the second round. He finished with positive FPOE for the first time since Week 1.

• The Commanders give up rushing FPOE and yards after contact at a higher than average rate, so Pollard could have a repeat performance.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

• Seattle’s defense has a tough task against a San Francisco offense that ranks No. 1 in EPA per pass attempt, passing success rate, passing boom rate, and passing FPOE. Brock Purdy leads all QBs in AYA and in Sports Info Solutions’ IQR metric, which attempts to isolate the factors a QB has control over. The Seahawks’ pass defense is around league average in most metrics, suggesting Purdy shouldn’t struggle too much to score points.
• One element that could limit San Francisco’s passing production is how easy they might find it to pick up yards on the ground. The Seahawks are No. 30 in yards after contact allowed and No. 29 in evasion rate allowed. Christian McCaffrey is as close to matchup proof as any RB in the league, but he will still welcome a game in which extra yards could come easily.
• In any event, Seattle will need to play aggressively to keep up. All their WRs get positive matchup ratings based on their alignment histories.

• Geno Smith is listed as questionable with an elbow injury, but the latest reports are optimistic.
• Things are less rosy for Kenneth Walker, who is listed as doubtful. In his stead, Zach Charbonnet will handle lead back duties. Charbonnet handled the bulk of the RB work in Week 11 after Walker injured his oblique in the first quarter, and the results were disappointing. Charbonnet caught all six of his targets for 22 yards, but gained only 47 yards on his 15 carries. He underperformed his opportunity by 5.3 fantasy points.

• Yet while San Francisco is good at limiting evaded tackles, they are No. 26 in EPA allowed per rush attempt and rushing boom rate allowed. If the Seahawks aren’t trailing by too much to hand the ball off to Charbonnet, those attempts could pay off with big gains.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

• The Jets have managed to win four games, largely on the strength of their defense. Of course, they haven’t faced the Dolphins yet. Miami is ranked first or second in many advanced metrics in both the passing and rushing phases. Although the Jets are No. 8 in both passing and rushing EPA allowed, the Dolphins are No. 2 in both passing and rushing boom rate. Even a strong defense like New York’s can’t completely stop Miami from picking up chunk plays.
• The Dolphins’ best chance appears to be to attack New York on the ground. The Jets are only average at limiting evaded tackles and yards both before and after contact. Miami is No. 1 in yards before contact, No. 2 in yards after contact, and No. 4 in evasion rate.
• That said, the Jets allow more fantasy efficiency in the passing game, and Tyreek Hill is capable of getting behind any defense for a long touchdown.
• New York is truly hopeless in the passing game. They have named Tim Boyle the starting QB. While it’s hard to imagine a worse option than Zach Wilson, Boyle did not inspire confidence in his limited action last week. He completed only half of his passes and finished with negative fantasy points.
• If the Jets want to compete, they will need to keep Miami’s offense off the field. The good news is that the Dolphins’ defense ranks No. 22 in rushing success rate allowed and No. 25 in rushing EPA allowed. Breece Hall is the most talented player on the field for the Jets, and figures to be the central part of New York’s game plan. That could mean both handing the ball off and “staying on schedule” or throwing him short passes for near-guaranteed completions.