RotoViz subscribers know that winning often hinges on meticulous analysis of various factors: player statistics, team dynamics, and even the whims of Mother Nature herself. Weather conditions, often overlooked, can play a pivotal role in any game’s outcome. A few of the most well-known and craziest examples include the Fog Bowl, the Tuck Rule Game, and the Ice Bowl.
The NFL is unique in its willingness to embrace the elements, with most of its venues exposed to all weather conditions, which can dramatically impact fantasy football production. Any NFL enthusiast has seen quarterbacks skillfully navigating needle-narrow gusts while kickers combat cascading snowflakes during the chill of winter. Football allows for anything except lightning, and severe weather conditions may have a sizable impact on a game but can go completely unnoticed by even the best projections beforehand. So, keeping one eye on the coming weather heading into the weekend can be valuable.
For this report, I wanted to recognize the nuanced impact that precipitation, snow, wind, and temperature variations can have on fantasy football outcomes. I didn’t want to exaggerate or speak too anecdotally about these effects. These were my primary sources: “How Weather Can Impact NFL Games and Football” by Fox Weather (2022), “Weather and the NFL” by Rory Houghton-Berry, Edwin Park, and Kathy Pierce of Stanford (2016), “How Weather Affects Betting” by Covers.com (2023), and “Analyzing the Effect of Weather in the NFL” by The Spax (2020). Based on these sources, game predictions are compared to predetermined thresholds and ranges, and my opinions have been mostly disregarded. All forecasts are from The Weather Channel. All times are Eastern Standard.
GAMES THAT WILL BE PLAYED IN DOMES
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (Germany) – 9:30 a.m. Sunday – Frankfurt Stadium, Frankfurt am Main, Hesse, Germany
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings – 1 p.m. Sunday – U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals – 4:05 p.m. Sunday – State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers – 4:25 p.m. Sunday – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – 4:25 p.m. Sunday – AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders – 8:20 p.m. Sunday – Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN EXCELLENT CONDITIONS
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals – 1 p.m. Sunday – Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH. Expected temps between 56-58°, 0% chance of precipitation, wind E-ESE @ 4-5 MPH (as of 10:23 p.m. Friday) Sunday Update: No significant changes.
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers – 1 p.m. Sunday – Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA. Expected temps between 51-52°, 0% chance of precipitation, wind NE-ENE @ 4 MPH (as of 10:37 p.m. Friday). Sunday Update: No significant changes.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens – 1 p.m. Sunday – M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD. Expected temps between 52-53°, 0% chance of precipitation, wind NNE-NE @ 3-4 MPH (as of 10:53 p.m. Friday). Sunday Update: No significant changes.
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN FAIR/GOOD CONDITIONS
Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1 p.m. Sunday – Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL. Expected temps between 84-85°, 9-21% chance of precipitation (0.00 in./hour expected), wind N-NE @ 5-7 MPH (as of 10:40 p.m. Friday). The struggle in this one is strictly related to temperature, as the high for the day in Tampa should materialize around the climax of this game. Temperatures at 85° or more can worsen overall performance at all positions, specifically regarding player stamina and length of kicks. This high temperature is right at the line of demarcation regarding historical performance decline, so the effects should be marginal if they are noticeable. Sunday Update: No significant changes.
