The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans
- The Titans want to run the ball, and judging by their defensive numbers, the Panthers also want other teams to run the ball. Carolina is dead last in EPA allowed per rush attempt. They are No. 31 in rushing boom rate allowed.
- Although Tennessee’s overall numbers in the running game aren’t stellar, they are one of the best teams at evading tackles and picking up yards after contact.
- Carolina isn’t strong against the pass either, but Will Levis has cooled off considerably after his four-touchdown debut. However, he did complete over 75% of his passes in Week 11.
- Treylon Burks has been ruled out for the third straight week due to a concussion he suffered in Week 9. Yet he was not a big part of the passing offense even before his injury. His 12% target share in the first nine weeks trails DeAndre Hopkins (29%), Chigoziem Okonkwo (16%), and Tyjae Spears (13%).
- Since Levis took over after the bye week, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has also been marginalized — he was at a 14% share with Ryan Tannehill, but has only a 7% share with Levis. Kyle Philips has enjoyed a 12% target share over the last four weeks.
- Over the last four weeks, Adam Thielen and Jonathan Mingo have identical route participation numbers for the Panthers. Thielen is earning targets and gaining yards at a much higher rate, but both are performing well below expectation.
- Bryce Young is at least partly to blame. The rookie signal-caller has struggled with accuracy despite an astonishingly low average throw depth (5.6 yards). No player with at least 100 attempts has a lower on-target throw percentage.
- However, Tennessee’s pass defense could be just the matchup to give Young a much-needed confidence boost. They are last in EPA allowed per attempt, 31st in passing success rate allowed, and 30th in passing boom rate allowed.
- In any case, this doesn’t look like a matchup in which Chuba Hubbard can reverse the fortunes on his season — the Titans are strong against the run, and Carolina likes to throw the ball anyway.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
- Dameon Pierce has a chance to return to the lineup against the Jaguars. He is listed as questionable. Noah Brown has been ruled out.
- Pierce may be returning to a lineup in which it will be difficult for him to regain his full workload. Devin Singletary has been a revelation for fantasy managers, with two RB1 performances and positive efficiency in both of Pierce’s missed games.
- Whoever takes most of the Texans’ rushing attempts has a chance to break free for some big gains. The Jaguars are No. 23 in yards before contact allowed and No. 20 in rushing boom rate allowed despite sterling overall results. Houston has struggled in the running game, but Singletary has been able to elevate their numbers over the last two weeks.
- The Texans might try to establish their running game early, as Jacksonville presents a difficult challenge for opposing passing games. That said, there aren’t many defenses that have been able to slow down C.J. Stroud. He leads all QBs in passing yards per game and trails only Brock Purdy in AY/A.
- Houston scored 37 points the last time these teams met, and Stroud tossed two touchdown passes while averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. That was back in Week 3 when Stroud was still getting up to speed.
- Jacksonville only put up 17 points in that last meeting, but is actually favored by 1.5 points on the road. Houston ranks 24th in EPA per pass attempt and 22nd in passing success rate, so it shouldn’t be difficult for the Jaguars to score points through the air.
- The Texans are better against the run, though they allow evaded tackles at a high rate — only one team is worse. If Travis Etienne can make would-be tacklers miss, he could find some big gains on the ground.
