That’s 72 unforced errors for Richie Tenenbaum. He’s playing the worst tennis of his life . . . He’s taken off his shoes and one of his socks and . . . actually, I think he’s crying.
– Royal Tenenbaums, Wes Anderson
Only the Lions, 49ers, Jaguars, and Broncos were on the bye in Week 9, but if your squads featured a lot of Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne with a heavy dose of Sam LaPorta, it felt like every team was on the bye. And then the best game of the week was going to be played in Frankfurt. My goal for many first-place squads was merely to hit 100 points on Sunday. Not all of them made it. Some are going to win anyway.
That’s what you get on a week where Brett Rypien, Clayton Tune, Tyson Bagent, Jaren Hall, and Aiden O’Connell started, and players like Tommy DeVito finished.
It was still a thrilling week of football, and it was an absolute blast to get back with Ben and Colm for Stealing Bananas and RotoViz Overtime. With those shows as the framework, let’s check in on the Monday Review, Advanced Teams Stats Explorer, Passing Matchup Rater, Team Pace Tool, and Strength of Schedule Streamer to recap a frantic day of football.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
The Defense Has Emerged as a Fantasy and Reality Force
In an exceedingly unusual development, my favorite play of the week came on the defensive side of the football. Tyreek Hill’s rhetoric over the last couple of seasons — even though completely and totally justified by his own play and that of his quarterback — will have certainly rubbed the Chiefs the wrong way. They were ready to do anything and everything necessary to stop him in Frankfurt, and his fumble led to a defensive TD that determined the game.
A variety of Kansas City defenders made this signature play happen, from the strip to the Mike Edwards fumble recovery, to the pitch, to Bryan Cook taking it the distance for the TD. My point on Stealing Bananas: you love seeing this level of effort, as opposed to the defense forcing a turnover, immediately running out of bounds, and then performing the obligatory team pileup and mugging for the cameras. After the lateral, Edwards instantly turned and engineered a TD-springing block. Cook, for his part, was not going to let the effort go to waste, and sprinted down the sidelines for a defining score.
The Chiefs defense presents a tough matchup in 2023, ranking near the top of the NFL in key categories like EPA/A, passing FPOE, and passing success rate.
Even the ability to generate pressure is arguably better than what you see here, as they’re No. 4 in pass rush WAR for the full season. Kansas City’s early success on both sides of the ball created a chasing game script for the Dolphins, and yet the Chiefs were able to hold Tua Tagovailoa below 200 yards passing for the first time this season.
The K.C. Offense Remains in Disarray
Ben made a good point about NFL offenses scoring early during their scripted plays. The Chiefs scored on a seven-play drive to start the game, and seven different players touched the ball during that stretch. Unfortunately, they were only able to execute one additional drive of more than five plays for the entire rest of the game.
Eleven different players were targeted by Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Watson led the way with five. Rashee Rice scored another early TD and Jerick McKinnon looked like his playoff self on a 17-yard score, but the two playmakers accounted for only five total opportunities.
The lack of use for Rice was especially egregious, as he came in with a great matchup according to the Passing Matchup Rater.
In addition to Watson, Mecole Hardman, Noah Gray, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling all finished the game with more targets than K.C.’s potential breakout star.
Cowboys @ Eagles
CeeDee Lamb Has Finally Emerged as a Superstar
Fully benefiting from Lamb’s ascension took some patience from fantasy managers. Over a 17-game stretch from the middle of his 2021 to the middle of 2022, he failed to hit 100 receiving yards even once.
During that stretch, he qualified as a WR1 or W2 in only 35% of his games. (Week 9 in 2022 was a bye.)
Over his next 17 games, including Week 9 of the 2023 season, everything changed. He hit 100 or more yards nine times, and averaged more than 20 PPR per game.
The highlight came against the Eagles, where he set a new career high (191) and by a wide margin. It was also the second time in his career in which he went over 200 air yards. Lamb and Tank Dell dominated that leaderboard in Week 9.
Player | PPR | EPA | Targets | Catch% | RecYards | RecTD | AirYards | YAC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CeeDee Lamb | 28.1 | 8.7 | 16 | 68.8 | 191 | 0 | 234 | 57 |
Nathaniel Dell | 29.6 | 6.7 | 11 | 54.5 | 114 | 2 | 222 | 9 |
Jalin Hyatt | 3.9 | -3.8 | 5 | 40 | 19 | 0 | 151 | 5 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 10.5 | -0.3 | 11 | 36.4 | 60 | 0 | 150 | 31 |
KhaDarel Hodge | 9 | 2.7 | 6 | 50 | 60 | 0 | 135 | 16 |
Cooper Kupp | 6.8 | -3.3 | 7 | 28.6 | 48 | 0 | 131 | 16 |
Jalen Reagor | 2.1 | -3.3 | 6 | 16.7 | 11 | 0 | 118 | 3 |
Jahan Dotson | 16.9 | -2.6 | 8 | 50 | 69 | 1 | 115 | 8 |
Rashod Bateman | 5.8 | -2.3 | 5 | 60 | 28 | 0 | 108 | 0 |
Amari Cooper | 24.9 | 12.2 | 5 | 100 | 139 | 1 | 106 | 33 |
A.J. Brown | 19.6 | 1.8 | 9 | 77.8 | 66 | 1 | 103 | 27 |
Jaylen Waddle | 8.4 | 2.1 | 6 | 50 | 42 | 0 | 98 | 8 |
A lot of these air yards fell incomplete in Week 9, but the deep targets to Jalin Hyatt were encouraging, even though two of the deep shots came from Daniel Jones before his season-ending injury.
Lamb and C.J. Stroud will be climbing into Tier 1 in my next dynasty rankings update.
Commanders @ Patriots
Sam Howell’s Breakout Is Almost Complete
Howell’s fifth game with at least 290 passing yards pushed him to QB6 in total points. Washington came into the game with more than 300 total plays in a “neutral” script and trailed only Minnesota and Cincinnati in passing percentage in neutral. Howell threw 45 additional passes against New England, and now holds a 20-attempt lead over Mahomes for most passing attempts.
Howell was one of seven QBs to throw for at least 300 air yards on the week.
Player | PPR | EPA | Att | Comp | Yards | TD | aDOT | AirYards | Sacks | RushYards |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C.J. Stroud | 40.8 | 28.4 | 42 | 30 | 470 | 5 | 11 | 463 | 3 | 0 |
Dak Prescott | 28.4 | 15.6 | 44 | 29 | 374 | 3 | 9.5 | 420 | 5 | 14 |
Will Levis | 8.7 | -4.1 | 39 | 22 | 262 | 0 | 10.1 | 393 | 4 | 2 |
Taylor Heinicke | 14.7 | 0 | 38 | 21 | 268 | 1 | 10.3 | 391 | 1 | 20 |
Sam Howell | 17.7 | 5.6 | 45 | 29 | 325 | 1 | 8.5 | 384 | 3 | 27 |
Mac Jones | 11.1 | -6.4 | 44 | 24 | 220 | 1 | 8.5 | 375 | 0 | 3 |
Josh Allen | 24.7 | 6.8 | 38 | 26 | 258 | 1 | 8.1 | 307 | 1 | 44 |
In a week with numerous backup QBs forced to ply their trade, it was encouraging to get further confirmation of breakout from Stroud, Howell, and, arguably, Will Levis.
Howell’s game should have rivaled that of Dak Prescott, but Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown each failed to pull in TD catches on drives that ended in a Brian Robinson score and an interception respectively. The most encouraging development again came from Jahan Dotson, who set a new season high in air yards and scored on a 33-yard TD. Following back-to-back strong performances, you can feel more comfortable deploying both halves of the Washington passing attack. Those WAS/SF Week 17 game stacks are starting to look like they could play a significant role in tournaments.
End of the Beginning, Beginning of a Run for Rhamondre Stevenson?
Stevenson was my risky trade target in last week’s Zero RB Universe, and the 64-yard rushing TD allowed him to eclipse his best 2023 full-game total with that one play.
Stevenson also added four catches for 42 yards on six targets, the fourth time this season he’s hit that target level. With Kendrick Bourne out, the remaining receivers disappointing — Jalen Reagor generated 118 air yards but caught only one of six targets and missed a beautiful deep ball opportunity — and Ezekiel Elliott averaging less than 3.0 yards per opp in this one, Stevenson’s passing-game role could continue to grow.
Bills @ Bengals
Tee Higgins Finally Healthy, Ready to Erupt