- Knowing when to react and when not to is crucial in fantasy football. It’s important to distinguish what is truly significant and what is not. This article aims to clarify what requires our full attention and what can be disregarded.
FIVE THINGS THAT MATTER
THE LEGEND OF JOSH DOBBS
Josh Dobbs was drafted in the fourth round in 2017 by the Steelers. He was traded to the Jaguars, found his way back to the Steelers, next the Browns, and then the Lions. Late in 2022, The Titans signed him off Detroit’s practice squad and put him into action eight days later against the Cowboys, where he played valiantly in a loss, earning an opportunity to try to clinch a Titans’ playoff berth against Jacksonville in the final game of the year. This offseason, Dobbs went back with the Browns before he was traded to the Cardinals on August 24, about two weeks before the season began. There, he served as the starter for the first eight weeks in relief of an injured Kyler Murray. At the NFL’s Halloween trade deadline, as Murray was activated off IR, Dobbs was again traded to the Vikings, where Kirk Cousins had recently torn his Achilles tendon. By November 5, he was stepping into action early in his first game with Minnesota for an injured Jaren Reed. By about 3:30 p.m. Central time Sunday, he was congratulated at midfield for a dramatic come-from-behind victory against the Falcons, putting the Vikings over .500.
To run that back, since the start of the 2022 season, Dobbs is on his sixth stop with his fifth team. On three separate occasions, he has started games for a team after being with them for 17 days or fewer (17, 8, and 5). In his first stop, he valiantly hung in with two playoff teams and nearly helped a set of strangers make the postseason. In his second, playing for a team that was expected to be the worst in the NFL to start the season, he upset the Cowboys and showed massive amounts of spunk. In the third, taking over a hard-luck team that had climbed out of a 1-4 start to draw even, only to see their playoff chances extinguished by a QB injury, he snatched victory from the jaws of defeat and pumped hope back into a fanbase. Vikings fans, pour one out for a stone-cold dog.
The stories from the game are borderline hilarious — Dobbs and teammates, whose names he didn’t know, mediating through past football languages, tossing corrected phrases back and forth like a tourist in a foreign country trying to figure out how to find a restroom, Dobbs asking teammates which route combinations belonged where on certain plays in the huddle; or play callers and coaches abandoning team vernacular to describe simple scheme concepts like “2122” or “slant-flat,” then saying something like “read it inside-out,” before patting Dobbs on the butt and saying a prayer. One can’t help but wonder if Dobbs’ tremendous intelligence — he famously majored in aerospace engineering at the University of Tennessee — was necessary to pull this off. Regardless, Dobbs is verging on becoming a folk hero at this point, and he has undoubtedly given hope to the hopeless in the Twin Cities today.
What’s even more critical for our purposes is Dobbs is not Cousins, but he’s not a bum. He has, at times, produced actual offense, and coaches seem willing to trust him. He didn’t accrue many yards in this backyard football version of the Vikings’ offense, but the most generous servings of the pie still went to T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison, meaning they might not be left behind after all. And perhaps, if and when Justin Jefferson can return, he will still produce meaningful fantasy production even if it falls short of the sky-high apexes he has hit with Cousins.
HOUSTON, WE HAVE A SUPERSTAR!
Next, I want to revisit an old one from Week 3, when I bragged on C.J. Stroud as the best QB in the most recent draft class, talked up his effect on the offense and all of the fantasy pieces in Houston, and backed up the insistence with a whole host of significant data like his being eighth in fantasy scoring, 10th in passing EP/game, and ninth in passing FPOE/game.
Let’s revisit those numbers now. Today, he sits fifth in fantasy scoring/game at the position, 15th in EP/game, and third in FPOE/game. Stroud has only gotten better, not worse. By now, it feels like a career trajectory, not variance.
More than that, there is what we saw with our eyes on Sunday, as Stroud was confidently in complete control of the pocket, reading defenses quickly and getting the ball out. His timing on throws was exceptional, and his ball placement was savvy. And when he needed to put it in the bucket over the shoulder on a long throw to Tank Dell in the end zone, Dell didn’t break stride, catching the rock like it was made of china. Stroud compiled a rookie record of 470 yards, five TDs, and zero INTs, and the cherry on top was a 40-second drive to put the Texans in position for a game-winning field goal, which frankly never seemed in doubt.
This performance doesn’t deserve comparison to Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, or Will Levis. Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes seem far more appropriate. The RotoViz Screener reveals an unbelievable set of similar rookie phenoms as cohorts.
As he becomes increasingly poised, as the Texans grow increasingly healthier, and as the offensive staff can unfold the paper a few more times, Stroud’s weapons become not only viable but good. At this point, Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Nico Collins are near-indisputable weekly starters in 12-team leagues. The jury is out on Noah Brown, who continues to have a sizable role, running a 48.6% route participation on Sunday. However, his lofty fantasy output was primarily due to some big plays.
Moreover, at least for Texans fans, they can breathe easy knowing they have officially emerged from the wilderness, and the future that once seemed like an anchor wrapped around an ankle is actually a garden of blooming flowers that have emerged from a period of depressing rain.
