Knowing when to react and when not to is crucial in fantasy football. It’s important to distinguish what is truly significant and what is not. This article aims to clarify what requires our full attention and what can be disregarded.
FIVE THINGS THAT MATTER
THE THURSDAY NIGHT MASSACRE
How could we not begin here? Joe Burrow is out for the year; Mark Andrews is potentially out for the year. In one night, so much has changed for the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens.
For the Ravens, things are indeed worse without Andrews, but the injury shouldn’t be crippling. Since 2019, Andrews’s second season — he and Lamar Jackson’s first seasons as full-time starters — the Ravens have played six games without their All-Pro TE, and they have scored 2.7 fewer points.
For Jackson, three games have been played without Andrews (they had three games where their absences overlapped), and the results are far more dire. Jackson has scored 6.35 fewer fantasy PPG without Andrews in an admittedly small sample size, throwing for fewer TDS, more INTs, fewer Y/A, and logging seven fewer passing attempts. He also logged fewer rushing attempts and rushing touchdowns per game.
In three games without Andrews, Isaiah Likely has posted 3.33 receptions/game, bumping up over four targets/game and scoring 9.7 PPR PPG. These games were played under a different coordinator and without fellow 2022 TE draft pick Charlie Kolar, who was out for the season last year. It is undoubtedly a standard narrative that Likely becomes an auto-start TE in the event of an Andrews injury, but I think the jury is still out on that. It is certainly possible, and he’s probably worth an add. Still, it’s too early for such definitive proclamations, especially considering Likely’s two-target goose egg after Andrews’s early exit on Thursday.
For the Bengals, it’s full panic mode. Without Burrow, after his ACL tear his rookie season, the team cratered back into the one that had earned the No. 1 overall pick and used it to select him. They have scored 8.27 fewer PPG in games without Burrow than in the rest of his tenure. In fairness, he is a better player than he was then, and most of his games have come after maturing into a better signal caller. The team overall is better than it was his rookie season as well. However, this is still a huge disparity and can’t be taken lightly. Burrow is an elevating QB, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Bengals utterly sink, especially considering the quality of their division.
There isn’t data on how Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins perform without Burrow because their careers have overlapped with his, but it’s a reasonable concern to ponder. Though backup Jake Browning is an unknown, it’s difficult not to envision something like what’s happened with Garrett Wilson this season. Still, some backups have had a good rapport with a single receiver. Amari Cooper and D.J. Moore have been passable with backups. However, passable was not what we were looking for when we took Chase, and contrary to the situations in New York, Cleveland, and Chicago, this pie gets split to accommodate another good WR in Higgins.
THE KING IS DEAD, LONG LIVE THE KING
There are few examples of a more widespread, charming, and enjoyable player in the league than Derrick Henry. A freak of nature, Henry seems like a war machine designed by some black-caped supervillain. Weighing 250 pounds, Henry is capable of a 21.8 MPH top speed, according to NextGen Stats (the sixth-fastest peak reached by any player in 2021). Capable of violence and grace, Henry does it all from behind a humble attitude and a gentle, warm smile — when he’s not truck-sticking defenders, that is. Henry has been a perfect RB for a front-runner; the Titans have had some excellent teams in recent years. Henry not only serves as a compliment to the Titans’ tendency to build a lead, but he has been the engine that has driven the whole instrument. Bottom line: Henry is one of the greatest of a generation, a future in Canton awaits, and he’s a National Treasure that the Library of Congress should preserve.
Henry isn’t washed; things just aren’t the same. A PPR/G rank of 17th seems fine, but not when compared to the four seasons prior, where he finished no worse than fourth. His FPOE is positive at 9.2, but it pales compared to the 51.16 he earned if you combine and average the previous five season-long totals. His EP/G of 12.9 is his worst mark since 2018, and his 4.2 YPC, which is respectable, is tied for the worst average of his career. And perhaps most painful of all, his four TDs on the ground through nine games are the fewest per game since 2017, before he was a starter, and just 40% of what he earned in his 8-game injury-marred 2021. As a starter, Henry has never failed to reach double-digit TDs in a season, yet that streak is in grave danger in 2023.
Much of it concerns the offensive line, once great, which is now among the lesser-regarded units in football. While Henry has an incredible top-end speed, his zero-to-sixty isn’t the best, so if he hasn’t left second gear as the defense swarms him, he can be caught and trapped by a legion of big game trappers (provided there are enough of them). Meanwhile, the Titans don’t take the lead as they have anymore. Over 28% of their plays in 2023 have come while behind by seven or more points; only 11.3% have come while leading by as much.
Since the start of 2018, Henry has scored more than 10 fewer PPR PPG in games when the Titans have lost by even one point, logging 70% of the carries, 57% of the yardage, and 37% of the TDs in losses compared to wins. In 2023, the Titans are losing games by an average of 4.6 PPG, and they have plunged to 3-7 on the season, committing to breaking in a rookie QB and likely recognizing the inevitability of the Texans, Jaguars, and even the Colts as better teams in the division.
Similarly, when Henry rushes for at least 100 yards, the Titans win by an average margin of 6.44 PPG; when he fails to, they lose by a margin of 1.66 PPG. They score 27.53 PPG while Henry crosses this threshold, and they score 20.22 in games when he doesn’t. Likewise, they win 75% of games when Henry crosses 100 yards and only 46% when he doesn’t. Through 10 games in 2023, Henry has crossed this threshold only twice. In 2020, for the 11-5 Titans, Henry had hit that number six times through the first 10 games and ultimately averaged 126.7 YPG over 16 games.
Running backs with a heavy workload (150 attempts or more per season) historically hit an age cliff at 29. Henry is 29 now. This season is almost lost as not only does Henry’s historical usage suffer on a lousy team, but the Titans would be incentivized to see more from other younger players they have, including rookie RB Tyjae Spears, who has better rushing FPOE/A and receiving EP than Henry so far this season, and who the team selected in the third round of the draft.
Henry’s contract expires at the end of 2023. One of the great eras in modern football has essentially come to an end.
