Knowing when to react and when not to is crucial in fantasy football. It’s important to distinguish what is truly significant and what is not. This article aims to clarify what requires our full attention and what can be disregarded.
FIVE THINGS THAT MATTER
CAROLINA DRAMA
I want to believe in Bryce Young. He’s diminutive for a football player, much less a QB. Yet, his processor seemed incredibly fast at Alabama, his arm seemed up to the task, and he was a winner, so I admittedly let myself become convinced by the pitch this spring. I wanted Young to be David, emerging from the swirling haze at the edge of town, the sun glinting off his dangling homemade slingshot, worn by the patina of time, as tumbleweeds quietly raced past his spurs and through dusty Main Street like fleeing townspeople. I wanted him to fire that stone at the Goliath known as convention and take down the whole system with the nation watching like residents through sun-faded curtains and boarded-up windows. Even now, I hope for it. Like I said . . . I want to believe.
I have a punk side, so chaos taking a bat to standard conventions is something I actively root for. Seeing a guy who is likely 5 feet 10 inches and 185 pounds when he isn’t puffed up for the combine succeed in the NFL is fun — not only is he an underdog story, but I like to witness the thing that can never be become a thing that is. More importantly, I like to learn if people think their crow tastes better with sriracha or honey mustard.
But it’s growing hard to keep the faith. While C.J. Stroud rips a hole in the center of the NFL universe each week, Will Levis debuted in a gear that Young has yet to find, and Anthony Richardson played his small stints at full health like a lit firework, Young has now fired eight stones from the pouch of his projectile pulley-whiz, and all but one has fallen errantly to the earth, harming no one.
As sideline reporter Kaylee Hartung pointed out on the Thursday night broadcast, Young’s six losses entering Thursday night’s game were one shy of the total he sustained in high school and college combined. We don’t need to call in Terence Tao to compute; he’s now matched that. However, the 1-7 record seems almost forgivable, especially considering how poor the Panthers are.
Then again, Carolina traded so much to get Young. Some of those picks are already spent — a first-rounder the Bears flipped to Philadelphia, which became DT Jalen Carter, the current favorite for DROY, and a second rounder that eventually became TE Brenton Strange. They also sent away WR D.J. Moore, who is enjoying a potential career year in Chicago. And yet to ship from the warehouse are a 2024 first-round pick and a 2025 second-round pick. In an upcoming draft class that features QBs Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, more prestigious prospects than Young, and WR Marvin Harrison Jr., the most highly-regarded WR prospect since Ja’Marr Chase, one might question the wisdom of the move in full Technicolor hindsight. Had the Panthers stayed pat, taken Carter, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or perhaps Will Levis, and kept their powder dry for another season, it seems likely that their probable top-three pick could have been well applied elsewhere. The total combination of assets could have been better without even considering the second-rounders or Moore (when considering them, the developing reality becomes far worse).
And now, what options do the Panthers genuinely have? They could overspend in the WR market to acquire Tee Higgins or Mike Evans — they almost have to — but with 34-year-old Adam Thielen only growing older, that becomes a revolving-door situation once he ultimately denigrates. Sure, the Panthers are left with the upgrade in that trade-off, but the total assets remain on a treadmill for another year.
Meanwhile, we are left asking ourselves if Young is a driver or a passenger for a winning team (if he can even quarterback a winner, that is), and the early returns are not good. Ranking 35th in QBR and 27th in PPR PPG, some solace may be found in his 12th-ranked EP/G, but this is undone by a desperately low 65th-ranked FPOE/G. In fact, in eight starts, Young has a negative FPOE in every game. His highest EP was 25.8, which came in Week 5 against the Lions, but in his one absence, backup Andy Dalton hit 23.8 EP, 27.15 fantasy points, and a positive FPOE against the Texans in Week 3.
In dynasty, we should be concerned if we landed on Young. In redraft, there is even less hope for 2023.
IS HOPE RESTORED WITH WATSON?
In a show of how thin the margins are between one side and the other on this list, there was a point on Sunday when I thought I may write about Deshaun Watson’s season, and possibly even his tenure in Cleveland like the rest of the NFL had just called “check.” With 1:22 left in the second, Watson limped gingerly off. P.J. Walker was still warming up after halftime. With the shoulder injury that had already plagued Watson this year, along with bouts of general lostness and a whole host of hinky things, the sum of the parts seemed like they were adding up to another false start (and, by rule, a DQ).
But to be fair, he came in afterward and played some of the best football he’s played in a Browns uniform. If we think through things and concentrate only on the games he started and completed in 2023, we get a picture of a player that might be starting to figure it out. It’s a Dow Jones situation — there are some downward blips (including his first half Sunday, honestly) — but on the whole, it seems to be a frequently recurring thing to hear: “his best football in a Browns uniform.” It was said after Week 3, Week 9, and the second half of Week 10. From a fantasy perspective, he was even good in Week 1, when he scored 22.2 fantasy points despite appearing discombobulated. In the games he has played and finished, Watson has been a QB2 twice and a QB1 three times.
There are still some troubling signs with the advanced stats, and even under the magnifying glass, he sometimes seems chaotic and scattered. But there is no question that the balance between bouts of disorganization has been intermixed far more frequently with equal parts cleverness and leadership. And if nothing else, his swagger seems to be returning.
As we needed to demonstrate patience before declaring him dead, we now must show patience before declaring him back. But the game is afoot, and it will be interesting to see where this lands.
A CHANCE TO TY DOWN THE BACKFIELD
Alexander Mattison has been a source of consternation for fantasy managers this season as the latest juxtaposition of mediocre talent and good opportunity. Though the Vikings are a fringe playoff contender and boast an effective offense, Mattison has been 36th in PPR PPG, and his FPOE/game has ranked 128th in the NFL. With Cam Akers out for the season, Ty Chandler was already a hot name in the waiver wire columns a week ago, yet his availability remains decently high.
The data set is small, but Chandler has a superior FPOE/attempt in limited opportunity this season, representing a 0.39 FPOEPA increase. If that rate could stand and were extrapolated over an expanded workload, it is conceivable that he could represent a significant improvement over Mattison. The expansion of that role was underway on Sunday before Mattison was concussed, but with Mattison now in the protocol, Chandler will likely get at least a one-week audition. If he can pass that class, he could take over for an RB whose claim on the depth chart is tenuous at best.
