The pace of play at the team level is instructive in fantasy football. The faster a team is, the more plays they will tend to run. The more plays a team tends to run, the more players on those teams tend to score. Using the RotoViz Pace Tool, we can see the tendencies of every team in these areas so far in 2023.
I toggled to neutral game scripts (-7 to +7 point differential, excluding the last two minutes of each half) and launched a quick investigation, and these are the results after Week 7.
We’re finally getting a data set that matters, but the results will always be somewhat volatile when dealing with a smaller sample size. Also, the information is already incorporated into the RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP). But I like to see this isolated in case I want to give this projection area a little extra weight.
We had four consecutive weeks with the same top three in neutral script seconds/snap, and we finally saw a change this week as the Vikings fell out and New England, who had enjoyed a white-knuckle grip on the number one spot, relinquished the throne. New Orleans is now the fastest team in the NFL in terms of neutral script seconds/snap, followed by New England, and Cleveland and the Los Angeles Chargers are tied for third. These are the only four teams snapping the ball in under 26 seconds of their own volition. Indianapolis and Minnesota are the only other teams snapping the ball in under 27.
I used total game stats rather than neutral script stats to uncover the four teams with the most offensive snaps/60 minutes: Cleveland, New Orleans, and Philadelphia. The Saints and Browns now make the top three in each category, making each a team we want to target for a faster pace.
Specific game context is vital in a limited sample, so while these are evidential indicators, they are only partially predictive. In this selection, I’ll highlight three games that feature fast-paced teams and three that match up with slower-paced squads so far this season.
The two lists may diverge, so we won’t always see the teams that rank high or low in the neutral script seconds/snap necessarily end with a similar rank correspondence in total snaps/60 minutes. A lack of correlation in the two separate areas can be explained in the following ways:
- A team chews up the clock with stick-moving drives that result in points, giving them a higher play total for an entire game without necessarily hurrying to hike the ball.
- A team’s defense smothers its opponent, often earning the ball back after a short possession, giving its team more chances with the ball per game than its opponent.
- A team spends very little time in a neutral script, so it compiles plays faster while chasing to get back into a game, plays that would not be reflected in data selectively collected out of a neutral script.
I’ve concentrated on the extreme outliers and games where the matchup ranks on the same half of the spectrum for both lists.
PLUS PACE MATCHUPS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Notable Players: QB Derek Carr, RB Alvin Kamara, RB Jamaal Williams, WR Chris Olave, WR Michael Thomas, WR Rasheed Shaheed, TE Taysom Hill, TE Juwan Johnson (NO); QB Gardner Minshew, RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Zack Moss, WR Michael Pittman, WR Josh Downs, WR Alec Pierce, TE Kylen Granson, TE Drew Ogletree, TE Mo Alie-Cox (IND)
Ranking second in total plays/60 minutes and first in neutral script seconds/snap, the Saints are undeniably a team we can count on for play volume. We’ll try not to obsess over where or why this new leaf turned over, as neither they nor Derek Carr have historically been this way, but here we are. They have a run-in with the Colts, who have adopted a fast philosophy in 2023 under new HC Shane Steichen. The Colts rank third in the NFL in neutral script no-huddle.
Unfortunately, despite their high play volume, the Saints are still a poor offense, ranking in the league’s bottom half in total yardage and points. The Colts are better on offense, but they are prone to turnovers with Gardner Minshew under center, and they face a tough Saints defense that might give them trouble. So, regardless of optimism for a high play volume in this game, the over/under is still only 43.5, which is around the league average.
