RotoViz subscribers know that winning often hinges on meticulous analysis of various factors: player statistics, team dynamics, and even the whims of Mother Nature herself. Weather conditions, often overlooked, can play a pivotal role in any game’s outcome. A few of the most well-known and craziest examples include the Fog Bowl, the Tuck Rule Game, and the Ice Bowl.
The NFL is unique in its willingness to embrace the elements, with most of its venues exposed to all weather conditions, which can dramatically impact fantasy football production. Any NFL enthusiast has seen quarterbacks skillfully navigating needle-narrow gusts while kickers combat cascading snowflakes during the chill of winter. Football allows for anything except lightning, and severe weather conditions may have a sizable impact on a game but can go completely unnoticed by even the best projections beforehand. So, keeping one eye on the coming weather heading into the weekend can be valuable.
For this report, I wanted to recognize the nuanced impact that precipitation, snow, wind, and temperature variations can have on fantasy football outcomes. I didn’t want to exaggerate or speak too anecdotally about these effects. These were my primary sources: “How Weather Can Impact NFL Games and Football” by Fox Weather (2022), “Weather and the NFL” by Rory Houghton-Berry, Edwin Park, and Kathy Pierce of Stanford (2016), “How Weather Affects Betting” by Covers.com (2023), and “Analyzing the Effect of Weather in the NFL” by The Spax (2020). Based on these sources, game predictions are compared to predetermined thresholds and ranges, and my opinions have been mostly disregarded. All forecasts are from The Weather Channel. All times are Eastern Standard.
GAMES THAT WILL BE PLAYED IN DOMES
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts – 1 p.m. Sunday – Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams – 4:05 p.m. Sunday – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings – 8:15 p.m. Monday – U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN EXCELLENT CONDITIONS
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1 p.m. Sunday – Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL. Expected temps of 81-84°, 0% chance of precipitation, wind WNW-N @3-5 MPH (as of 9:05 p.m. Friday).
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks – 4:05 p.m. Sunday – Lumen Field, Seattle, WA. Expected temps of 58-59°, 4-7% chance of precipitation (0.00” is expected), wind N @ 6 MPH (as of 9:11 p.m. Friday).
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos – 4:25 p.m. Sunday – Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO. Expected temps of 76-77°, 0% chance of precipitation, wind NNE-ENE @ 5-6 MPH (as of 9:13 p.m. Friday).
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN FAIR/GOOD CONDITIONS
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots – 1 p.m. Sunday – Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA. Expected temps of 54-56°, 15% chance of precipitation (0.00 in expected), wind W-WNW @ 12-14 MPH (as of 8:58 p.m. Friday). There is a chance of rain, but any accumulation should be no more than a drizzle. Though the chances are small, any rainfall, even a light shower, could cause slight issues with passing accuracy, kicking accuracy, made worse on longer attempts, sharpness of routes, catching, and holding onto the ball. However, the primary concern in Massachusetts this weekend is wind. Anything between 10-15 MPH is considered a moderate wind, and it can have consequences on passing accuracy and yardage accumulation, catching, route running, ball tracking, and kicking, exacerbated by longer attempts. Gillette Stadium sits at an SSE azimuth, and the wind is expected to run W-WNW, which wouldn’t blow in line with the field but wouldn’t form a direct crosswind. There is only a minor cause for concern, as these are not effects we must fear.
