The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (in London)
The Titans travel to London with a passing offense that’s better than you think, and a rushing offense that’s worse than you remember. They are No. 9 in passing boom rate and above average in EPA per pass attempt. Unfortunately they face one of the toughest pass defenses in the league.
No team limits opponents’ passing game fantasy efficiency as well as the Ravens, and no team plays tighter coverage against opposing wide receivers. Only one team allows a lower success rate on pass attempts. Tennessee’s No. 28 offensive line might also struggle against Baltimore’s better-than-average pass rush.
The really bad news for the Titans is that they will have almost as difficult a time running the ball.
The Ravens are a top-four team in rushing FPOE allowed, EPA allowed per rushing attempt, and rushing boom rate allowed. They are No. 6 in rushing success rate allowed. The Titans, meanwhile, are worse than all but five teams in turning carries into big plays, and worse than all but three at picking up yards before contact. They are good at picking up yards after contact, but it hasn’t yet translated into in-game success.
Baltimore, on the other hand, gets a much more forgiving passing matchup.
The Ravens are a top-five team in both WR separation and passing success rate, though they do struggle to achieve big gains through the air. Luckily for them, Tennessee is utterly incapable of stopping the pass. They are a bottom-four team in WR separation, EPA per pass attempt, and success rate allowed. This is the perfect game for Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews to get back on the same page. If Nelson Agholor’s game-defining drop in Week 5 doesn’t keep him from earning more targets in Week 6, he comes in with one of the top matchup ratings of the week.
Baltimore would do well to lean on their receivers and attack this vulnerable passing defense. This is especially the case because Tennessee is fairly strong against the run.
Baltimore is inside the top 10 in every advanced rushing metric above except yards after contact and boom rate. Yet Tennessee is inside the top five in many defensive categories, including EPA per rush attempt allowed and success rate allowed. The Ravens are going to run the ball — there is only so much that even the best defense can do against Jackson — but this may not be the best week to start Gus Edwards or Justice Hill.
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans
If you had told me before the season that the Houston Texans’ passing attack might have a chance to do something against one of the top passing defenses in the league, I would have assumed they made a big trade for a top WR or something. While the Saints certainly present a challenge, Houston’s passing offense has been effective so far in 2023.
They are No. 8 in EPA per pass attempt, No. 7 in total passing game FPOE, and also in the top half of the league in passing success rate and passing boom rate. Their offensive line has done a decent job of preventing C.J. Stroud from seeing much pressure. Of course, they now face arguably their toughest test. The Saints are a top-five defense in passing EPA allowed, passing success rate allowed, and passing boom rate allowed. Only one team (the Ravens) allow less FPOE on pass attempts.
Yet Houston will have to put the ball in Stroud’s hands and hope that he can exploit New Orleans’ weak pass rush. The Texans are one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL.
No team generates less rushing FPOE or has a lower success rate on rushing attempts. Only one team is worse at gaining yards before contact. They are No. 27 in both yards after contact and EPA per attempt, and No. 29 in rushing boom rate. Meanwhile, New Orleans is nearly as stout against the run as they are against the pass. Only two teams allow a lower rate of evaded tackles, and they are also inside the top five in EPA per attempt and success rate allowed.
If the Saints’ defense can stop the Texans’ passing attack, then we may not see much need for the Saints to play an uptempo game. However, this is probably their best bet to score points.
While New Orleans doesn’t have the strongest passing attack, their rushing attack is much weaker.
They are just No. 20 in passing EPA per attempt, but are No. 29 in rushing EPA per attempt. At the same time, Houston defends the run better than they do the pass. The Texans allow a positive EPA play on over 51% of the pass attempts they face. That number is below 40% for rushing attempts. While Houston does allow fantasy efficiency in the running game, this isn’t the Saints’ forte. Alvin Kamara may have an opportunity to get his rushing FPOE back in the black, but that probably doesn’t represent New Orleans’ best strategy in this game.
