The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Because we are early in the season, the numbers you will see below are still balanced between late-season 2022 and early-season 2023. As we get deeper into 2023, the 2022 numbers will drop out.
Here’s an early week preview featuring the Thursday night and Sunday morning games. Stay tuned for the full version later in the week.
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
The Commanders’ passing offense rebounded against Philadelphia. And nothing can help keep the rebound going quite like a matchup against the Chicago Bears.
Chicago’s pass rush is among the worst in the league, but it may be the strongest aspect of their pass defense. They are a bottom three team in allowing total passing game FPOE, average WR separation, expected points added (EPA) per pass attempt, success rate, and boom rate.
The only thing that could slow down Washington’s passing attack is the fact that they won’t need to rely on it much. Chicago’s own passing attack is unlikely to be able to keep pace.
Unlike the Bears’ Week 4 opponent, the Denver Broncos — who are almost as forgiving as the Bears are against the pass — the Commanders are No. 6 in success rate allowed and No. 2 in boom rate allowed. Add to that the fact that Chicago will also relent against Washington’s runners, and you have a recipe for a game with very few Washington receiver targets.
Only three teams allow more EPA per rushing attempt than the Bears. Only two give up more rushing FPOE.
The Bears’ plan in most games is to keep the ball on the ground. This plays to their strengths, as they are a top-10 team in both yards before and after contact.
While Washington presents a tough challenge for opposing runners, they are not nearly as good against the rush as they are against the pass. They are just No. 20 in boom rate allowed, and rank 25th in both FPOE and yards before contact allowed. The Bears could keep the game close with some big rushing plays, but the most likely outcome is that they will be forced to throw more than they’d like.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (in London)
Jacksonville extends their overseas trip and gets to play an “away” game in their second home city, this time at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The Jaguars are playing their 11th game in London since 2013, which more than doubles the number of London games of the next closest team. (The Dolphins and the Raiders have each played five.) Yet here’s some interesting trivia: this is the first London game in which Jacksonville has been designated as the away team.
This week they’ll be tested by a tough Buffalo Bills passing defense. No team is allowing less EPA per attempt.
In Week 4, the Dolphins’ offensive line allowed four sacks to the Bills’ pass rush. That may not sound like a lot, but it’s only the second time since the start of 2022 that Tua Tagovailoa has been sacked as often. Miami is almost as good at preventing pressure as Jacksonville, so this could present problems for Trevor Lawrence, even behind the No. 8 offensive line.
The Jaguars might instead prefer to attack Buffalo on the ground. No team allows more yards after contact, and only three allow evaded tackles at a higher rate.
Travis Etienne and his teammates rank seventh in evasion rate and the Bills could allow them to finally turn these broken and missed tackles into big rushing plays. Only one team allows a higher boom rate on rushing attempts.
Last week we noted that, although James Cook had a good matchup, the offense would continue to run through Josh Allen and the passing game. Indeed, Cook’s biggest gain came on his lone target. Cook’s rushing matchup is much tougher in this one than it was last week.
The Jaguars are a top-four team in FPOE, EPA, success rate, and boom rate allowed in the running game. Although they do allow runners to pick up yards before contact, they are No. 6 at preventing yards after contact.
Jacksonville also has a tough passing defense, but it’s far more likely that Buffalo will turn to Allen to make plays. For one thing, the Bills rank No. 2 in success rate on passing plays.
Only two teams accumulate more total passing game FPOE or more EPA per pass attempt. And despite Jacksonville’s superficially strong numbers, Stefon Diggs draws an average matchup according to the Passing Game Matchup Rater.
The Jaguars are, in general, much tougher against the run, so expect Allen and the receivers to be the focal point of Buffalo’s game plan, and expect Allen to continue looking Diggs’ way a lot.
